Akalis bank on BSP’s 2019 show

Jupinderjit Singh

Tribune News Service

Chandigarh, July 10

With a fresh alliance in place, the SAD hopes for a repeat performance by the BSP in the last parliamentary elections to see it through in the 2022 Assembly polls. However, the BSP’s performance in the 2017 Assembly polls suggests the alliance seems to be a gamble.

Enjoys support in Doaba

The alliance will gain because of BSP’s support in the Doaba and east Malwa belts. In 2019, the BSP got over two lakh votes in the Jalandhar parliamentary constituency. In Hoshiarpur, it secured 1.3 lakh votes, while in Anandpur Sahib it polled 1.5 lakh. - Daljeet Singh Cheema, SAD Spokesperson

The BSP had once become a formidable force in the Punjab politics under the leadership of Kanshi Ram. Its first alliance with the Akalis way back in 1996 for the parliamentary elections yielded rich dividends. The alliance won 11 out of the 13 seats. The BSP bagged three with a vote share of 16 per cent.

However, the BSP contested alone in the subsequent 1997 Assembly elections. While it had a respectable vote share of 13.9 per cent, 45 of its 67 candidates lost the security deposit. The party won the lone seat of Garhshankar (Doaba).

The downslide continued thereafter with the party managing 6.61 per cent vote share in the 2002 polls, which fell to 4.17 per cent in 2007. In the 2012 Assembly elections, the vote share rose slightly to 4.3 per cent, but it slid to 1.59 per cent in 2017.

In the parliamentary elections, BSP’s vote share stood at 3.52 per cent and 1.9 per cent in 2019 and 2014, respectively. While the vote share is a powerful factor in analysis, it may mislead at times. In the 2017 Assembly elections, the SAD on its own got a higher vote share than the AAP, but bagged fewer seats.

The SAD got 25.2 per cent vote share and 14 seats, against AAP’s 23.7 per cent and 20 seats. The vote share of the SAD-BJP alliance was much higher at 30.6 per cent, but they won only 17 seats.

“The 2017 polls were an aberration as the AAP cut into the vote bank of all parties, mainly the BSP. In 2019, the politics underwent a course correction as the AAP bubble had burst,”

said Daljeet Singh Cheema, SAD spokesperson.

“The alliance will gain because of BSP’s support in the Doaba and east Malwa belts. The BSP got over two lakh votes in the Jalandhar parliamentary constituency. In Hoshiarpur, it secured 1.3 lakh votes, while in Anandpur Sahib it polled 1.5 lakh votes.”

As per the Akali Dal analysis, the partnership will benefit the most in the Doaba (area between rivers Beas and Sutlej) region. In 2019, the BSP improved significantly in at least 20 out of the 27 seats under three parliamentary seats of Jalandhar, Hoshiarpur and Anandpur Sahib. In Doaba, the SAD-BJP won six seats in 2017. The Akalis are hoping to at least double the figure in 2022.

SAD adviser Harcharan Bains called the alliance with the BSP historic. “Both share same ethos. The alliance has already set a record in 1996.”

Soon after hitting a high in the 1996 elections, the bond broke with the Akalis supporting the BJP to form the government at the Centre under Atal Bihari Vajpayee. The BSP, which opposed the BJP, termed it a betrayal by the Akalis. “The BSP left the Akalis immediately over the betrayal. Trust has to develop at the ground level. The vote bank of the BSP has shrunk over the years. They don’t cast vote en bloc. The big question is whether the BSP will fill the gap left by the BJP for the Akalis,” says a political commentator.

Already, there is a revolt within the BSP. Former state president Rachhpal Singh Raju and serving president of Jalandhar Ram Singh Saroye among others have termed the alliance unequal. “Out of the 20 seats the BSP has got in the alliance, its candidates polled more than 10,000 votes only in Nawanshahr. In most other seats, our candidates could not even get 1,000 votes.” They want seat-sharing renegotiated.