2nd Covid-19 peak likely to be more severe: Study

Ruchika M Khanna

Tribune News Service

Chandigarh, March 21

The second Covid peak is yet to come and is expected to be higher than the first one. By the end of this week, almost 3,000 cases a day can be expected.

The state witnessed first Covid peak was on September 17 last year, when 2,896 cases were reported. The highest single day deaths (106) were reported on September 2. Today, 2,669 cases were reported, though the fatality rate slightly came down to less than three.

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A study by Ludhiana-based Christian Medical College, based on mathematical calculations, has predicted that the state could see the peak again later this week and through the first week of April. This will be followed by a flattening of the curve, but when the decline in daily cases will start cannot be predicted immediately, says Dr Rajesh Bhaskar, state nodal officer for Covid.

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This is why it is important to gear up all healthcare infrastructure immediately and ensure that all protocols are followed strictly by the people, Punjab Chief Secretary Vini Mahajan tells The Tribune. Managing the state’s strategy to deal with the second wave of the pandemic, Mahajan says that the government’s focus is on saving lives as well as livelihoods.

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Asked about the possibility of imposing another lockdown, the Chief Secretary says that there is no situation, as of now, of bringing the economic activities to a halt.

“Hopefully, with the cooperation of the people, wherein they follow all norms, we will come out of the dire situation,” she says. “Of the 1,500 beds in level-3 facilities, 22 per cent are occupied and of the 8,000 level-2 facilities, 15 per cent are occupied,” she says.

‘3,000 cases by weekend’

• By weekend, 3,000 cases a day can be expected
• First wave’s peak on Sept 17 last year saw 2,896 cases
• Highest single day deaths (106) were reported on Sept 2
• Fatality rate came down to less than three

What CMC says

A study by Ludhiana-based Christian Medical College has predicted that the state could see the peak again later this week and through the first week of April