Nitish brings on his game face vis-a-vis BJP

Radhika Ramaseshan

Radhika Ramaseshan
Senior Journalist

Among India’s regional satraps, Nitish Kumar is underrated for his political instincts and cunning because he is reticent, speaking out only when it is absolutely imperative, unlike Mamata Banerjee whose politics is less conditioned by statecraft and more by staging open confrontations against her adversaries.

However, a reading of the Janata Dal (United) or the JD(U)’s partnership with the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), that dates back to 1995, shows that Nitish has almost always had his way vis-a-vis Big Brother BJP. There were occasional conflicts and even serious breaches in the alliance but these were quickly repaired, taking the adage of there being no permanent friends and enemies in politics to another level. Indeed, even the ‘paltu chacha’ (flip-flop uncle) moniker that the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) leader, Tejashwi Yadav, used for Nitish, didn’t quite stick because over the years, Nitish effectively marketed his collaboration with the BJP, not only to his votaries but a section of Bihar’s Muslims too.

Even his opponents concede that the JD(U) secures ‘some share’ of the 18 per cent Muslim votes in the elections, although nobody would quantify the quota. Even if the claim is a bit of a boast, what is a fact is that Nitish is not a bad word to Muslims. At least, not so far.

In the 2019 Lok Sabha polls, in which the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance won 39 of Bihar’s 40 seats, reducing the RJD-helmed Grand Alliance to just one, the JD(U) forfeited the Muslim-majority Kishanganj seat to the Congress by 30,000 votes. Nitish insisted on extracting an equal number of seats from the BJP and Prime Minister Narendra Modi and party President Amit Shah gave in without further ado and despite strong reservations from the Bihar BJP. The BJP and JD(U) won almost an equal number, a tally that seems to have put Nitish, rightly or wrongly, in a ‘commanding position’ with the BJP in anticipation of this year’s Assembly elections.

It’s rather hard to assess what’s going on in Nitish’s mind because he is seen to articulate two-and differing-view points through Prashant Kishor and RCP Singh, who are called the ventriloquist’s dolls. Kishor, a professional political consultant for various parties, including the JD(U), was last year absorbed in the party and designated as its vice-president. Notionally, the title placed him a notch higher than RCP Singh, who is still regarded as Nitish’s closest political confidant. As the JD(U)’s national general secretary (Organisation), Singh is vested with an overarching mandate that includes speaking to the existing and prospective allies.

So, eight months before the polls, even as seat-sharing was not on anyone’s table, Kishor upped the JD(U)’s game, insisting that it will contest a larger number of the 243 seats than the BJP, in keeping with a mutually agreed upon formula, of which there is no documented evidence. Singh shot down Kishor’s statement. A thornier matter was the JD(U)’s seeming confusion over supporting the citizenship package, although it had voted the passage of the Citizenship Amendment Bill in Parliament, with Singh putting up a spirited defence of the CAA in the Rajya Sabha.

Kishor recanted the stand and stated that the JD(U) will not endorse the other components of the package, namely, the National Population Register (NPR) and the National Register of Citizens (NRC). Again, Singh took him down and hinted that the JD(U)’s support for the NRC and NPR was on.

Nitish capped the speculation with the statement that the JD(U) will not support the NRC nor allow its implementation in Bihar, this after the non-BJP opposition spoke out stridently against the CAA. However, by now, it was clear that the JD(U) would go only half way to oppose the citizenship combination.

What is at the root of the JD(U)’s dilemma? First, its neither-here-nor-there stance reflects that Nitish might keep his options open after the Bihar polls and before the 2024 parliamentary elections, depending on the extent to which the BJP’s apparent hegemony over the national political landscape is challenged, and, correspondingly, the degree of the Opposition’s unity and the Congress’s ability to lead an Opposition coalition.

Both the scenarios are riddled with imponderables. Nitish’s competency to stand up to the BJP will be decided if he has his way, as in 2019, and pries out a bigger share of the seat pie. Yielding ground to Nitish is bound to rankle with the Bihar BJP contingent that is already flexing its muscles. It will open the way for sabotage in the elections to scale down Nitish’s victory output. After all, the JD(U) depends critically on the BJP’s base among the upper castes, the backward castes and even the Dalits.

It’s almost fashionable to speculate that every regional chieftain will emulate the Uddhav Thackeray template and Nitish too might discard the BJP after the state polls. The Maharashtra case was distinctive. The Shiv Sena’s resolve to cross the Rubicon was conditioned as much by legacy and emotions as realpolitik. Knowing Nitish’s propensity to play it safe, it seems unlikely he would do an Uddhav and venture into a riskier terrain, not after he came out of the RJD-Congress Grand Alliance despite the secure numbers the coalition had and returned to the BJP. If at all he looks at other choices, it would be after the next Lok Sabha polls, in case the election throws up a big surprise.

For now, despite the contradictory signals emanating from the JD(U) now and then, the BJP has made it clear that Nitish will lead the coalition into the polls. Amit Shah stated as much at a rally in Vaishali last week. Nitish’s flip-flop over the CAA-NRC is perceptibly aimed at assuaging the fear among the minorities who are at the crossroads in Bihar because the RJD does not inspire the same level of confidence in them under Tejashwi Yadav as it did under his father, Lalu Prasad. The lack of a discernible recourse doesn’t mean that the minorities will root for Nitish because they are acutely conscious of the fact that tangentially, he is complicit in the harassment and persecution they suffered under a BJP dispensation.