Next five years to be hottest ever, forecasts WMO

Tribune News Service

Karam Prakash

New Delhi, May 17

The global temperatures — apparently owing to the climate change — are likely to surge to a record high in the next five years. This will be caused due to heat-trapping greenhouse gases and a naturally occurring El Nino event, says the World Meteorological Organisation (WMO).

The annual mean global near-surface temperature for each year between 2023 and 2027 is predicted to be between 1.1°C and 1.8°C, which is higher than the 1850-1900 average.

El Nino effect

• The annual mean global near-surface temperature for each year between 2023 and 2027 is predicted to be between 1.1°C and 1.8°C, which is higher than the 1850-1900 average
• This will be caused due to heat-trapping greenhouse gases and a naturally occurring El Nino event

“There is 66 per cent likelihood that the annual average near-surface global temperature between 2023 and 2027 will be more than 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels for at least one year. There is 98 per cent likelihood that at least one of the next five years, and the five-year period as a whole, will be the warmest on record,” said the WMO in a statement.

Prof Petteri Taalas, Secretary-General, WMO, said the global temperature would breach the 1.5°C level on a temporary basis with increasing frequency. However, it would not permanently exceed the 1.5°C level, specified in the Paris Agreement.

“El Nino is expected to develop in the coming months and this will combine with human-induced climate change to push global temperatures into an uncharted territory. This will have far-reaching repercussions for health, food security, water management and the environment. We need to be prepared,” said Prof Taalas.

The WMO further stated that chances of temporarily exceeding 1.5°C temperature has risen steadily since 2015, when it was close to zero. For the years between 2017 and 2021, the WMO said there was a 10 per cent chance global temperature would breach the 1.5°C level.

“Global mean temperatures are predicted to increase, moving us away further and further away from the climate we are used to,” said Dr Leon Hermanson, a Met Office expert scientist who led the report.

About The Author

Tribune News Service

The Tribune News Service brings you the latest news, analysis and insights from the region, India and around the world. Follow the Tribune News Service for a wide-ranging coverage of events as they unfold, with perspective and clarity.

#climate change #Environment