Monsoon likely to be normal in second half of rainfall season: IMD

Vibha Sharma
Tribune News Service
New Delhi, July 31

The Indian Medical Department said on Friday quantitatively the rainfall over the country as a whole during the second half is likely to be 104 per cent of LPA with a model error of ±8 per cent.

The forecast issued at the end of first two months of the June-Septmeber season said rainfall during August is likely to be 97 ± 9per cent of LPA as forecast in June. The season (June to September) rainfall over the country as a whole is likely to be normal (96 per cent-104 per cent of LPA) as mentioned in the updated forecast dated June 1, it said

The probabilistic forecast suggests rainfall over the country as a whole during second half (August to September) is most likely to be normal (94-106 per cent of LPA). However, the probability of above normal rainfall (>106 per cent of LPA) is also higher than the corresponding climatological probability, India’s official forecaster added

Currently, the sea surface temperatures (SSTs) as well as the atmospheric conditions over equatorial Pacific Ocean indicate cold ENSO neutral conditions.

Latest forecasts indicate that SSTs over the region are likely to cool further. However, ENSO neutral conditions are likely to continue during the remaining part of the monsoon season

In addition to ENSO conditions over Pacific, other factors such as the Indian Ocean Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) also have some influence on Indian monsoon.

Currently, neutral IOD conditions are prevailing over equatorial Indian Ocean, which are likely to turn to negative IOD conditions during the coming months.

The rainfall over the country as a whole during August is likely to be 97± 9 per cent of the LPA.