It’s advantage BJP in Phase-I of West Bengal elections

Sandeep Dikshit
Tribune News Service
New Delhi, March 27

PM Narendra Modi’s stopover in Bangladesh at a temple besides the birthplace of Matua community’s spiritual guru will have a marginal impact on the 30 constituencies in West Bengal that went to the polls today. Mamata Banerjee can consider herself in the race for a third term if she manages to win even half of the 30 seats at stake.

Comparisons with the 2016 elections will be misleading. The ground shifted in most of these constituencies, first in the 2018 panchayat elections followed by the defection of the Adhikari family to the BJP.

That the dice is loaded against the TMC can be judged from the fact that elections are broadly taking place in five parliamentary constituencies, four of which are held by the BJP (Midnapore, Jhargram, Bankura and Purulia)while Sisir Adhikari, who won Kainth on the TMC ticket, has crossed over to the BJP.

A broad brush picture would show that the BJP led in at least 20 of the 30 seats during the 2019 elections. Also, the TMC had won all seven seats in Kainth. But the power balance shifted after Adhikari crossed over to the BJP. All these constituencies were once Left bastions. These fell to the TMC after tribals and Scheduled Castes began aspiring for material development.

The battle in this election is between material advancement promised by the BJP against TMC’s incremental social welfare. Issues such as Hindu-Muslim and outsider versus tourist find no resonance here. This is because Muslims are below 10 per cent of the population and the SC\T population is so high that TMC’s outsider versus tourist battle cry finds little resonance.

If Mamata has held rallies in all 30 seats, Mithun Chakraborty’s roadshows were a huge hit. Campaigning by Union Minister Arjun Munda was countered by Jharkhand CM Hemant Soren pitching for TMC candidates. BJP’s widely respected Jyotirmay Singh Mahato had won the Purulia Lok Sabha seat in 2019, leading in six of the seven Assembly seats. The BJP won Bankura and led handsomely in all the seven seats.