It is not over yet: Active monsoon to revive, says IMD

Tribune Web Desk

Vibha Sharma

Chandigarh, August 11

Midway through a very unpredictable season, the IMD today predicted “subdued rain activity for one week” over most of the country barring Uttarakhand, Bihar, Sikkim, Arunachal Pradesh, Assam and Meghalaya.

According to the weather office, which this year has been stumped on many occasions by the vagaries of the June-September Southwest Monsoon: “Isolated heavy to very heavy rainfall is likely to continue over Uttarakhand during next five days and over Bihar, Sikkim, Arunachal Pradesh, Assam and Meghalaya during next two days; and isolated heavy rainfall thereafter for subsequent three days”.

“Isolated extremely heavy rainfall can be expected over Uttarakhand during August 12 and 14 and subdued rainfall activity over rest parts of northwest India during next 7 days,” it said.

“Subdued rainfall activity is also likely over remaining parts of the country during next one week followed by “revival of active monsoon conditions thereafter,” it added.

Uttarakhand

Uttarakhand has been advised to remain cautious amid the possibility of heavy downpours, localised flooding and related concerns.

According to the IMD, a cyclonic circulation lies over northeast Uttar Pradesh and adjoining Bihar and a trough runs from east Bihar to Northwest Bay of Bengal in lower tropospheric levels. The Monsoon trough is north of its normal position. It is likely to continue to remain north of its normal position or along the foothills of Himalayas during next 4-5 days and gradual shifts southwards towards its normal position thereafter.

There is also a Western Disturbance passing over.

In the past 24 hours, heavy to very heavy rainfall with extremely heavy falls have occurred over parts of Haryana, Himachal Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Chandigarh, Punjab and Western Uttar Pradesh—regions that have been facing the brunt of rains this season.

Northwest—large excess rains

Though every year tends to be different, the 2023 monsoon has thrown more surprises than any, including in onset and progress, taking the IMD by surprise.

In the beginning of the season, the IMD had predicted 96% rains of the LPA in the country along with an impact of the El Niño phenomenon in the latter part of the four-month season.

For the northwest, it had predicted “normal to below normal rains”.

The region, however, received excess rainfall, leading to flash floods, landslides and damage to infrastructure in Punjab, Haryana, Delhi and Himachal Pradesh in July.

So far, since the beginning of the season in June, as many as 58 districts (8%) of the country and largely the northwest, have received large excess rains. They include three districts in Punjab, Chandigarh, six in Himachal Pradesh, five in Haryana, 11 in Rajasthan, two in Ladakh, two in J&K, Delhi, three in Uttarakhand and five in Uttar Pradesh.

Meanwhile, 121 districts in the country have received excess rains and 293 normal rains so far.

India’s one-third area rain deficient

But despite rain-triggered mayhem in several parts, one-third of the country remains deficient with little or no rains. As many as 225 or 31% of the country has had ‘deficient’ and 3% ‘large deficient’ rains.

India’s most awaited weather phenomenon in the country is changing pattern. “Cold desert” Ladakh has been receiving more rain.

The rains received so far this year also put a question mark on the IMD’s prediction capabilities. Many experts have advised an upgrade and improvement in prediction capabilities, especially keeping in mind the climate change and the dependence of the country on the seasonal rains.

India depends on satellite data and computer models for weather prediction and observations from Automatic Weather Stations (AWS), Global Telecommunication System (GTS), AGROMET and Doppler Weather Radar systems to augment observations.

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