India's strained ties with China, Pak raise risk of armed confrontation, says US intel

Tribune News Service

New Delhi, March 9

A US intelligence report has said there’s a possibility that India’s increased tensions with China and Pakistan could spill over, and there could be repercussions that may require immediate US attention.

On India-China conflict

• India and China have engaged in border talks, but ties will remain strained in the wake of lethal clash in 2020
• Expanded military postures along border elevate risk of armed confrontation between two nuke powers
• This might involve direct threats to US interests, and calls for US intervention

On India-Pak crisis

• Pak has a history of supporting anti-India militant groups
• Unrest in Kashmir/militant attack potential flashpoints

There is the high risk of an escalatory cycle if India responded with military force to perceived or real Pakistani provocations, says the annual threat assessment of the American intelligence community.

The India-Pakistan crisis is of “particular concern” because of the risk of an escalatory cycle though New Delhi and Islamabad probably are inclined to reinforce the current calm in their relationship following both sides’ renewal of a ceasefire along the LoC in early 2021.

“However, Pakistan has a long history of supporting anti-India militant groups, and under the leadership of PM Narendra Modi, India is more likely than in the past to respond with military force to perceived or real Pakistani provocations. Each side’s perception of heightened tensions raises the risk of conflict, with violent unrest in Kashmir or a militant attack in India being potential flashpoints,” said the section on “Conflicts and Fragility”.

Previous standoffs between India and China have demonstrated that persistent low-level friction on the LAC can escalate swiftly.

It noted that India and China have engaged in bilateral border talks and resolved border points. But relations will remain strained in the wake of the countries’ lethal clash in 2020, the most serious in decades. The expanded military postures by both India and China along the border elevate the risk of armed confrontation between two nuclear powers that might involve direct threats to US interests, and calls for “US intervention”, said the report.

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