Five Assemblies: BJP has little to lose but a whole lot to gain

Vibha Sharma
Tribune News Service
New Delhi, February 26

Apart from Assam where it is running a government, the five Assembly elections announced by the Election Commission on Friday are those where the BJP has very little to lose but a whole lot to gain. In fact, in two out of the five election-bound assemblies in the South (Tamil Nadu and Puducherry) the BJP has “zero” number of seats. In Kerala, it has one seat—Nemom. 

Overall in the three southern states where it is hoping to make real big gains this time, it is defending just one seat that it holds in Kerala. Therefore, wins will all be gains, especially in Tamil Nadu, where its current ally, the AIADMK, is defending the government it had formed after sweeping the 2016-elections under late J Jayalaithaa. The five assemblies are going to polls at a critical time, amid Covid pandemic and resulting unemployment, the agitation against the three Central three farm laws and rising fuel prices. The results are bound to be read as a people’s verdict on these issues.      

Currently, the major chunk of BJP’s sitting seats (as many as 60) are in Assam, which the saffron leadership is absolutely confident of retaining. It had won just three seats in West Bengal in 2016 (the rest were added later from defections), Therefore West Bengal is the real fortress to watch out for. A prestige issue for the BJP, especially Home Minister Amit Shah and party president JP Nadda, the leadership has made it their mission to wrest it from Mamata Banerjee-led Trinamool Congress. 

In both Kerala and West Bengal, the saffron party is engaged in bitter battle with two strong regional opponents. It is here that the saffron party is hoping to make a major dent armed with the double dose of Hindu-Muslim polarisation and a slew of infrastructure projects that Prime Minister Narendra Modi announced in Kerala, Tamil Nadu, Puducherry, West Bengal and Assam, making development the centerpiece in the run-up to the elections.

The BJP is confident of winning at least four out of the five assemblies. Recently, general secretary Bhupendra Yadav said the party will win “at least 200 seats in West Bengal and return to power in Assam, comfortably”. He said “the NDA will form the government in Puducherry and likewise in Tamil Nadu with the AIADMK”. Regarding Kerala, Yadav said the party will “increase its support base” and “emerge as the third pillar” in the deeply polarised political scenario of the southern state.