264 districts in India received 'no rain' in January and February

Tribune Web Desk

Vibha Sharma

Chandigarh, February 28

Deep rainfall deficiency is looming over large parts of the country, including Northwest India comprising Punjab, Haryana, Chandigarh, Delhi, Jammu and Kashmir, Himachal Pradesh, Uttarakhand and Western Uttar Pradesh.

In fact, close to 85 per cent of India reported deficient rains in the first two months of the year 2023 and as many as 264 of 717 districts received ‘no rains’ between January 1 and February 27, according to the IMD data.

The state-wise data available for the period between January 1, 2023, and February 27, 2023, on the IMD website for 717 districts shows that around 243 districts are staring at ‘large deficiency’ and 100 ‘deficiency’. Only 54 districts received ‘normal’ rains, 17 ‘excess’ and 36 ‘large excess’ in this period

In Punjab, 18 districts and in Haryana, 13 are starting at ‘large deficiency’.

Rains remained far and a few over many parts of the country and overall, 37 % of the country received ‘no rain’, 34 % is ‘largely deficient’, 14% ‘deficient’, 8% ‘normal’, 2% ‘excess’ and 5% ‘large excess’.

In fact, February, which is the rainiest month for winters, saw very little weather activity. Plains largely remained dry and many parts of Bihar, Jharkhand, Odisha practically saw ‘no rains’.

The month of March, too, is expected to be largely deficit with some mild activity over the northern parts, according to reports.

The Tribune on Tuesday reported that the Himachal Pradesh government has asked the departments concerned to chalk out a strategy to mitigate the drought-like situation the state is currently experiencing.

The Western Disturbance affecting Western Himalayan Region from February 28 to March 2 is expected to bring some change.

There is a direct link between abnormally high temperatures and lack of rains and snow in the region.

As on date maximum temperatures are above normal by 3-5°C over most parts of Northwest, including Punjab, Haryana, Rajasthan and Uttar Pradesh. Night temperatures too are above normal by 3-5°C over many parts of Punjab and Rajasthan.

EL Nino looming large

What is more concerning is the threat of dreaded phenomena of El Nino and the phenomenon casting a shadow over the 2023 monsoon season. El Nino is invariably linked with poor Monsoon performance.

According to the latest forecast by

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), a transition from La Niña to ENSO-neutral will occur mostly during the February-April.

By February-April 2023, most models indicate the return of ENSO-neutral, with a probability of 82%. Climate models are predicting potential return to El Nino by May-July.

According to statistics, about 60% of the time there will be a probability of drought in the country during an El Nino year.

Chances of below-normal rain will be 30%, while the prospect of normal rain remains very rare at 10%. According to the experts, if an El Nino state does emerge by summer, India is more than likely to see a deficit monsoon.

More than two-third of the country's agricultural tracts depend upon seasonal rains. Rains in any part of the year are crucial for agriculture and replenish reservoirs and ground water.

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