Doubling rate of cases continues to dip, still better than first peak

Nitin Jain

Tribune News Service

Ludhiana, May 8

Even as the second Covid wave continues to rapidly slide into a devastating crisis with exponential rise in daily cases and deaths, the district’s doubling rate was still less than the first peak of the pandemic witnessed here last year.

While the number of days required for the number of cases to double was dipping drastically and touched the lowest of 30.98 days this week, it was still much better than the first peak’s worst doubling rate of 17.28 days recorded in the district between August 10 and 16 last year.

The analysis of comparative trends done by the district administration, a copy of which is with The Tribune, revealed that the doubling rate has dipped almost six times in two months from 175.44 days between March 1 and 7 to 30.98 days between April 26 and May 2.

This worrisome slide makes it evident that the rate of cumulative increase in the number of Covid cases was leading to uncontrolled exponential growth of the virus in Ludhiana, which has once again assumed the dubious distinction of Covid capital of Punjab.

The official data showed that the doubling time had touched its all-time best of 579.2 days between January 11 and 17 after which it started sliding continuously to 487.19 between January 18 and 24, 443.09 between January 25 and 31, and once again improving to 499.74 between February 1 and 7.

Officialspeak

We have imposed stricter restrictions, including extension of curfew duration to 17 hours between 12 noon and 5 am on weekdays, besides continuing with the complete weekend lockdown from 12 noon on Friday to 5 am every Monday. The aim is to break the chain of virus spread and this can only be achieved if the public follows the restrictions religiously and exercise Covid appropriate behaviour. —Varinder Kumar Sharma, Deputy Commissioner

Thereafter, the crude estimate of the current rate of spread of the virus kept falling to 439.63 days between February 8 and 14; 370.04 between February 15 and 21; 269.66 between February 22 and 28; 175.44 between March 1 and 7; 129.83 between March 8 and 14; and touching the double figure of 74.6 days between March 15 and 21; 57.17 between March 22 and 28, 65.01 between March 29 and April 4; 60.28 between April 5 and 11; 48.07 between April 12 and 18; 33.56 between April 19 and 25 and touching this year’s minimum time to double the cases in 30.98 days between April 26 and May 2.

Comparatively, the doubling rate, which was at its lowest of 17.28 days so far between August 10 and 16 in 2020, had risen to 32.44 between August 17 and 23 before falling to 29.25 between August 24 and 30; 28.83 between August 31 and September 6 and once again started rising to 29.98 between September 7 and 13; 66.68 between September 14 and 20; 85.41 between September 21 and 27; 151.26 September 28 and October 4; 184.71 between October 12 and 18; 257.32 between October 19 and 25, to 268.43 between October 26 and November 1.

The Covid spread had started increasing once again last year when the cases had begun doubling in 223.17 days between November 2 and 8; 171.43 between November 9 and 15; 162.8 between November 16 and 22; 157.08 between November 23 and 29 and reaching 153.22 days between November 30 and December 6.

The situation had once again started improving last year when the doubling rate improved considerably to 237.85 between December 7 and 13; 270.47 between December 14 and 20 and touching the last year’s best tally of 441.69 days between December 21 and 27.