Precipitation in Jhelum basin to rise by 25% by century end: Study

Tribune News Service

Chandigarh, February 7

In the backdrop of global warming and climatic changes, a recent study has projected that the monthly mean precipitation in the Jhelum basin is expected to increase by 20-25 per cent towards the end of the 21st century, while the monthly mean temperature may go up 2-3°C.

Investigation of the future projections revealed an average increase of 17-25 per cent in the mean annual precipitation. The mean seasonal temperature of the projected period was found to be increasing for all the four seasons in most parts of the basin.

Using future prediction models, the study examined the spatio-temporal variations of precipitation and temperature for the 2011-2100 period in the Jhelum basin that lies across the mountainous regions of Kashmir and adjoining parts of north-east Pakistan. It has a total catchment area of 33,342 sq km and forms part of the Indus basin, which is among the largest basins in the world.

Climatic variations in this area have an impact on the weather in the western Himalayan region as adjoining plains of northwest India. The study, undertaken by the Department of Civil Engineering, National Institute of Technology, Patna, has been published by the India Meteorological Department (IMD).

Statistical downscaling models were developed using two different modelling approaches called Artificial Neural Network and Wavelet Artificial Neural Network, to downscale the future projections of temperature and precipitation over portion of the Jhelum basin that lies in India.

The future screened predictor data was downscaled to monthly temperature and precipitation for three future periods — 2011 to 2040, 2041 to 2070 and 2071 to 2100. Data from four meteorological stations in the area — Gulmarg, Srinagar, Quazigund and Pahalgam — and three runoff gauging stations at Sangam, Baramulla and Rammunshibagh was used. The climate of the basin is characterised by moist winters and mild temperature in summers.

The study predicted that during spring, the east part of the basin would be most affected by precipitation near the end of the 21st century, while in autumn and spring, the whole basin is predicted to be affected with the significant increase in temperature.

During summer, the southeast part is projected to be affected by temperature changes near the end of the 21st century while during winter only a small part on the east side of the basin is predicted to be affected.