Explainer: Game over for Opposition bloc INDIA?

Tribune Web Desk

Vibha Sharma  

Chandigarh, January 25

The Congress may be trying damage control by adopting a pacifying tone but with the future of the anti-BJP coalition—INDIA—is looking more and more doubtful with every passing day.

Trinamool Congress supremo Mamata Banerjee has already announced her decision to fight alone on all the 42 Lok Sabha seats of West Bengal in the upcoming General Election. The problem is that the West Bengal CM is not the only one considering life without the Congress. Punjab Chief Minister and AAP leader Bhagwant Mann has also ruled out any alliance with the Congress in the state.

The AAP will contest the 13 Lok Sabha seats of Punjab and the Chandigarh constituency on its own strength. Sources say AAP chief Arvind Kejriwal, who approved the proposal by the Punjab unit to contest the General Election alone, may be willing to part with three of the seven seats in Delhi to the Congress.

TMC, AAP tango

Allegations and counter-allegations are being traded openly among alliance partners in the non-BJP-ruled states. At the bottom of the majority of issues appears to be allegations of “individual ambition and stubborn attitude regarding seat sharing “against Congress.   

The TMC, which claims to be the only party in a position to defeat the BJP in West Bengal, is also upset with Congress’s “love” for Left parties.

The TMC also says it cannot give more than two seats to the Congress in West Bengal given that the party, in alliance with the Left Front, won just as many. In lieu it is also demanding share in Assam, Meghalaya and Goa, which the Congress is not willing to give.  

Meanwhile, the AAP, too, is accusing the Congress of having a “stubborn attitude” so far as seat-sharing is concerned. Any alliance in Punjab is linked to one in Delhi and Haryana, too. But while the AAP and the Congress can reach a settlement in Delhi, where the BJP won all the seven seats in 2019, the same is not possible in Punjab and Haryana. 

Trouble also in Bihar and Maharashtra

According to sources, trouble is also brewing in Bihar (40 seats) and Maharashtra (48 seats) with regional allies demanding more than the Congress may be willing to concede.  According to Shiv Sena (UBT) leader Sanjay Raut, his party will contest 23 of the 48 seats in Maharashtra, which leaves just 25 seats for other two partners in the Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA)—the Congress and the NCP (Sharad Pawar).

The bloc is also coming apart also in Bihar, which sends 40 MPs to the Lok Sabha. 

Apart from the open snub by CM Nitish Kumar over the post of the national convener, his ties with alliance partner RJD are also under the cloud.

Sources say coalition partners RJD, JD (U) and Congress have discussed the seat-sharing formula but without much success

In 2019, JD(U) contested with BJP and LJP on a 17:17:6 formula and as per sources Nitish Kumar is not willing to concede any one of the 16 seats he won in alliance with the NDA in the last elections.

BJP’s decision to part with 13 seats it contested in 2014 Lok Sabha elections saw a jump in JD (U)’s 2014 tally, taking it to 16 from two it scored in 2014 when it fought alone.

The Congress had won just one seat in 2019.

Sources say JD(U) and RJD are both demanding 17 seats each, which does not leave much scope for other alliance partners like CPI (ML), CPM and CPI. Meanwhile there are also speculations of trouble between JD(U) and RJD and Nitish Kumar switching sides to the NDA.  

Wheels within wheels

There are wheels within wheels based on individual aspirations and ambitions  

Apparently, Mamata Banerjee and Arvind Kejriwal are the biggest roadblocks for Nitish Kumar in pursuit of his aspiration for a larger role.

During the December in-person meeting, both Kejriwal and Banerjee proposed the name of Congress president Mallikarjun Kharge as INDIA face much to the disappointment of Nitish.

RJD chief Lalu Prasad is, meanwhile, said to be eyeing the post of Bihar CM for his son, Deputy CM Tejashwi Yadav, which is possible only if Nitish Kumar vacates the post and moves to national politics.

Congress ‘love’ for Left

TMC’s decision to contest alone is also driven by the “love” of senior Congress leaders, including Rahul Gandhi, for Left parties, especially arch rival CPM, according to reports.

The CPM, too, says it will not go with TMC in West Bengal.

“The Left is in power only in Kerala, their ideas have been rejected everywhere. Congress’s failure to understand this is proving detrimental for the alliance,” TMC sources say.

Banerjee, meanwhile, has been quite open with her disdain, claiming that she was “insulted” several times in the INDIA bloc meeting “controlled” by Left parties.

“I have fought the CPM for decades and we ousted them. It is not possible for us to listen to the CPM and work accordingly. We have the power and resolve to fight alone in Bengal. I named the alliance INDIA. And now, I am being humiliated. It hurts me. I told them (Congress) that let the regional parties fight in their strong areas and they can fight on 300 seats,” Banerjee was quoted as saying.

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