Explainer: Amethi and Raebareli—the suspense and speculation continue

Tribune Web Desk

Vibha Sharma

Chandigarh, April 8

The suspense around the Congress candidates for two prestigious Lok Sabha constituencies in Uttar Pradesh—Amethi and Raebareli—is continuing and so is the build-up on various possibilities and candidates.

While some believe that the two “original members” of the Gandhi family—Rahul Gandhi and sister Priyanka Vadra— will stake claim on the family boroughs to “send a positive message” to party leaders and cadres as well as voters, rumours are abound on the possibility of Congress president Malikaarjun Kharge and Priyanka’s husband Robert Vadra being fielded from there.

Though state leaders certainly want Rahul and Priyanka to contest from Amethi and Raebareli, respectively, to pep-up cadres as well as voters.

Will they, won't they?

Leaders, meanwhile, claim there is “plenty of time” to finalise the names as the two constituencies that poll on May 20 in the fifth phase of the upcoming Lok Sabha elections in the country.

Congress’ central election committee is expected to meet to discuss candidates for the two seats in its next meeting, they add.

The nomination for the two seats will start from April 26. The last date of filing nominations is May 3.

“Congress has already named candidates on seats that need time to campaign. As far as Raebarelli is concerned, Priyanka is already managing the constituency for her mother, she knows it well and people there also know her. Likewise Amethi,” they add.

Confusion or strategy

Supporters also say that delaying the names of candidates does not necessarily mean confusion, it could also be a strategy.

Detractors, however, point out how in the 2019 Lok Sabha elections, Congress’s first list of candidates from Uttar Pradesh included both Amethi and Raebareli and this time the grand old party is “scared of exposing top leaders to the humiliation of a defeat”. 

In 2019, former Congress president Sonia Gandhi and son Rahul returned to reclaim the two seats considered as “traditional bastions” of the party. While Sonia won Raebareli, Rahul lost Amethi to BJP’s Smriti Irani.

“Gandhis knew the situation in Amethi then, they know it now. If Rahul had not contested from Wayanad in Kerala in 2019, he would have had to sit out of the Lok Sabha for the last five years,” say observers.

Apparently, the situation in Raebareli was also turning “shaky”, a reason why Sonia chose the Rajya Sabha path to remain an MP.

In 2024, Rahul is again contesting from Wayanad, which he won in 2019.

Party loyalists however say that the current silence around the two seats is “strategic and CEC’s decision will not only take Congress’ opponents (read BJP) by surprise but also enthuse voters”.

Will Rahul contest from Amethi

Nomination in Amethi will start on April 26 and on the same day polling will also be held in Wayanad.

Some analysts believe that things will only become clear only after the Wayanad has been done and dusted with. 

The BJP is pursuing Wayand will all its might, fielding state president K Surendran against Rahul and forcing a keen contest there.

“BJP is trying to ensure that Wayanad does not come easy to Rahul Gandhi this time. They are hoping that Surendran will repeat what Smriti Irani achieved in Amethi in 2019,” say observers.

While Priyanka has maintained silence on the possibility of her contesting from Raebarelli, sources say Rahul is “open to the idea of contesting Amethi”.

Meanwhile, brother-in-law Robert seems to be keen on Amethi, say sources.

So far as Kharge is concerned, the Congress may consider him to encash his biggest calling card, his caste, they add. All eyes are on the two seats.

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