Lok Sabha election 2024: Testing times for Haryana Congress in bid to regain power

Tribune News Service

Bhartesh Singh Thakur

Chandigarh, May 23

Out of power in Haryana for 10 years, Lok Sabha poll performance will be a trial by fire for the Congress state unit and former CM Bhupinder Singh Hooda. In the 2014 General Election, the Congress secured only one out of 10 seats — Rohtak — and drew a blank in 2019.

However, there’s a noticeable surge in support for the party across the state for the 2024 Lok Sabha polls. The question remains: Will this surge be enough?

Banking on anti-incumbency against the BJP, the Congress anticipates an improved performance, potentially extending beyond its traditional stronghold of Rohtak. The battle will be fierce, particularly against the BJP, across constituencies such as Bhiwani-Mahendragarh, Hisar, Sirsa, Sonepat, Karnal, Faridabad and Ambala.

Historical data suggests a spillover effect of Lok Sabha contests on Assembly election in the state. For instance, two decades ago in the April-May 2004 Lok Sabha polls, the Congress clinched nine out of 10 seats with 42.13% vote share, while the BJP secured one seat with a 17.21% vote share. Subsequent Assembly elections in February 2005 saw the Congress sweeping to power with 67 out of 90 seats and a marginally increased vote share of 42.46%. The BJP’s seat count dwindled to two with a reduced vote share of 10.36%.

Similarly, in the April-May 2009 Lok Sabha polls, the Congress maintained its dominance with nine out of 10 seats and 41.77% vote share, while the BJP failed to secure any seat with 12.1% vote share. In the subsequent state Assembly elections in October of the same year, the Congress retained power with 40 seats, but experienced a dip in vote share to 35.12%, while the BJP secured four seats with 9.05% vote share.

The 2014 General Election, marked by double anti-incumbency against Congress-led state and Central governments, resulted in the Congress being reduced to just one seat (Rohtak) with 22.99% vote share. The BJP, on the other hand, secured seven seats with 34.84% vote share. In the subsequent Assembly polls in October of the same year, the Congress diminished to 15 seats, with a vote share of 20.61%, while the BJP maintained its vote share at 33.24%, securing 47 seats and forming the government.

The 2019 Lok Sabha polls witnessed a Modi wave across the nation, leading to BJP’s clean sweep of all 10 seats in Haryana with a substantial 58.21% vote share. The Congress drew a blank. It lost Rohtak narrowly and managed 28.51% vote share. In the subsequent Assembly election, BJP’s vote share plummeted to 36.49%. However, it got 40 seats and retained the power. The Congress secured 31 seats with 28.08% vote share.

Over the past four and a half years, the Congress in Haryana has focused its attacks on the Manohar Lal Khattar government and now on the Nayab Singh Saini government. The party has also been assertive on state issues within the Assembly.

“The spillover effect of LS performances on state Assembly polls have happened in 2004, 2009 and 2014. However, the BJP was unable to replicate its LS poll performance in the Assembly election in 2019. If we consider the 2019 Lok Sabha results, the BJP was ahead in 78 out of the total 90 Assembly segments. However, a few months later, they managed to win only 40 seats,” said former CM Bhupinder Singh Hooda.

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