Monsoon forecast

The prognosis of a normal monsoon by the IMD brings cheer as our agriculture is largely rain-dependent. With nearly 50 per cent of the people in the country reliant on farming or farm-related jobs, bumper crops are critical not only for ensuring food for all and containing food prices but also for the Indian economy. Allaying fears of El Nino, the IMD has forecast that quantitatively, the rainfall during the southwest monsoon would be 96 per cent of the long period average (LPA) of 87 cm as the other factors at play are positive. The neutral condition over the equatorial Pacific Ocean, positive Indian Ocean Dipole and lower snow cover over the Himalayas and Eurasia are expected to negate El Nino, wherein the ocean temperatures rise, causing a deficit in rains.

However, more significant for the cultivators is the advance information on how the rains would be geographically distributed, whether they would be skewed or evenly spread. The IMD must upgrade its tools and foretell the weather every fortnight or so as it forms the basis of the planning for the sowing and harvesting of the staple crops. Its second projection announced in May-end leaves little time to adjust kharif crop sowing that begins in June. Farmers in Punjab, Haryana and HP have been bearing the brunt of irregular rains in the past two seasons. As in 2021-22, the rabi crop has been impacted in 2022-23 due to the climate change-induced erratic pattern of precipitation, even though the rainfall ultimately turned out to be on the higher end of the normal spectrum, which spans from 96% to 105% of the LPA. After an unusually dry spell of winter this time, February witnessed abnormally warm temperatures. Dealing the final harsh blow to crop yield and quality was the atypical downpour in March.

The unseasonal heat surges and rainfall have hit wheat production and the Centre has been constrained to relax the grains’ quality norms for procurement in Punjab, Haryana and Rajasthan. The changing weather pattern poses a challenge; experts must brainstorm and offer policy measure to ensure full granaries and happy farmers.