The corona threat to US Navy

Group Capt Murli Menon (retd)

Group Capt Murli Menon (retd)

Defence Commentator

Whilst the entire world is battling the corona virus threat with varying degrees of success, a most fearsome happenstance in this nightmare is unfolding far away in the Eastern maritime theater. South China Morning Post, Fox News and the Deputy Secretary Navy have all stated on March 29 that at least 36 crew members of US Navy aircraft carrier USS Theodore Roosevelt (CVN 71) have been inflicted with the virus and the ship along with nearly 5,000 personnel is quarantined at Guam in the Pacific. The ship, radio call sign nicknamed ‘Rough Rider’ after President Roosevelt’s volunteer cavalry unit in the Spanish – American War, is known to have made a port call at Vietnam three weeks earlier. Given the peculiarities of such combat ships, virtual floating cities with thousands of sailors working and living in close quarters, the disease can be transmitted faster onboard. This accounts for a third of the reported positive cases in the US military and a vital combat asset is going to be non operational for at least a few weeks (possibly longer) for testing of all sailors and decontaminating the ship. The ship’s air conditioning would have been instrumental in spreading the corona bug .The 100,000-tonne Nimitz class carrier with sailors packed like sardines, even in equipment and weapon bays and food buffets personnel are forced to cohabit in very close proximity, quite unlike the working environment in the Army or the Air Force. Also most naval men spend a majority of their time in equipment maintenance, calling for them to be touching every corner and surface on the ship, thus leading to rapid transmission of the infamous virus. Besides, disinfecting the war ship would be challenging as there are several equipment and weapon systems that could be contaminated by the disinfecting chemicals. Another carrier, USS Ronald Reagan, is likewise held up at the Japanese port of Yokosuka, two of its sailors having showed up positive for corona. It is not clear if this ship too would be rendered non functional shortly. Ironically, both these aircraft carriers were part of Donald Trump’s Indo-Pacific strategy aimed at countering China. Though the US Navy has put it out that their combat capability has not been eroded by these two instances, prudence indicates that the assets would not be combat-worthy for a considerable period of time, at least for around a month.

Two intelligence-related incidents, in the backdrop of the corona fiasco, concerning Chinese research scientists bear mention. In July 2019, Canada expelled a team of virology scientists led by Dr Xiangguo Qui from Winnipeg’s National Microbiology Laboratory for transgression of bio war related technologies. Then again in November 2018, US Customs and Border Patrol stopped a Chinese biologist with three vials of ‘antibodies’ in his luggage( actually containing SARS and MERS material), allegedly meant for a colleague researcher at a US Institute. Recently the US Justice department preferred charges against Professor Charles Leiber of Harvard’s chemistry department for unethical deals with Chinese entities. Strong US-China cooperation at that time enabled the Chinese to run dubious dual use technology research programmes in the US, with serious bio war implications.

The manner in which the US Navy’s combat potential has  been seriously compromised in the eastern maritime theatre without firing a shot makes me wonder whether it was all part of an intentional Military Operations Other Than War (MOOTW) ploy by China against the US, as a retaliation against  Trump’s  recent trade  and tariff  war measures . Social media has been rife with such conspiracy theories alright, but the predicament of the two USN carriers makes one wonder if the entire pandemic has indeed been ‘launched’ by China for ulterior motives. MOOTW is a doctrinal term coined by the US military during the nineties and since fallen into disuse. US Army’s Field Manuals and Joint Doctrines say that OOTW encompasses a wide range of activities wherein military  forces are employed for purposes other than large scale combat operations associated with conventional war. Generally envisaged outside the US such operations involve a combination of air, land, sea, space, special ops and activities of non government organisations in a concerted effort, to achieve diplomatic, economic and informational goals . It is not beyond the realm of possibility that China which nurses global dominance ambitions would have motives and capabilities in this arena. Virus warfare and bio war could well fall under the realm of OOTW, though in this case possibly waged by an adversary. This possibility does not sound good from an international military point of view, as it could imply a military confrontation between two military world powers, one the only super power and the other an emerging superpower. The only saving grace is that motives are difficult to establish in this context and counter action by affected parties therefore difficult and unfeasible.

Whilst the Chinese regime’s misinformation propaganda ramps up efforts to pass on blame to entities such as a US military sports contingent, many aspects of the corona pandemic defy logical explanation. The fact that after its origin from the wet market of Wuhan, the spread of the virus was strangely contained in that one city in China itself is perplexing. Of course currently there are too many imponderables that defy logic. Herd immunity, immunity caused by other pathogens such as malaria parasite and tuberculosis are still unclear propositions. Once we have more data from countries in Africa and South Asia and South East Asia, perhaps researchers would be able to fathom the full epidiomology of the corona Covid-19. Also the fact that hydroxyquinine (since cleared for use by the FDA) has been found to be effective in containing the adverse  respiratory ill effects of the virus and the lack of clarity over the mismatch between malaria affected regions and the corona pandemic impacted  regions  worldwide are perplexing, to put it mildly. The drastic shakedown of prevailing world economy and the stock markets globally are aspects that need a different analysis by specialists .Be that as it may, the vulnerability of large naval aircraft carriers to such an epidemic ‘attack’ makes the military mind ponder. The Chinese have been evolving their surface-to-surface missile weaponry such as the hypersonic DF-17 to target American aircraft carriers and other naval ships at sea. The Americans apparently have developed a counter to this threat. Virus warfare aimed at the non-operationalisation of one or even two premier aircraft carriers in the Pacific would be another ballgame altogether. The urgent need for a corona vaccine has a military dimension now.