Nuke threat calls for review of security measures

Bharat H Desai
jawaharlal Nehru Chair & professor of International law, JNU

THE marathon 10th review conference of the Nuclear Non-proliferation Treaty (NPT) concluded without an outcome on August 26 in New York. “The Nuclear NPT is an essential pillar of international peace and security, and the heart of the nuclear disarmament and non-proliferation regime,” UN Secretary-General (UNSG) Antonio Guterres said. The stalemate has been attributed to refusal by the nuclear-weapon states, namely the US, the Russian Federation, the UK, China and France, to agree to any tangible progress on the implementation of agreed nuclear disarmament commitments.

On August 1, the UNSG’s address to the NPT review conference expressed grave concern that “humanity is just one misunderstanding, one miscalculation away from nuclear annihilation”. “Almost 13,000 nuclear weapons are now being held in arsenals around the world. All this at a time when the risks of proliferation are growing and guardrails to prevent escalation are weakening,” Guterres said. In his address, Japanese PM Kishida swore to work towards “the ideal of nuclear disarmament”. On August 4, on behalf of US President Biden, Ambassador Scheinman assured that “the United States will continue the long work toward eventual nuclear disarmament”.

August also brought back vivid memories of the lethal capacity of the bombs that were dropped on the Japanese cities of Hiroshima (August 6) and Nagasaki (August 9) in 1945. It showed the destructive human streak for nuclear annihilation. Last month, Guterres became the second UN chief to go to the bomb site to share the collective grief of the Japanese people. The UNSG alerted the world about the danger of forgetting the lessons of Hiroshima and Nagasaki. “Nuclear weapons are nonsense. They guarantee no safety — only death and destruction. Three quarters of a century later, we must ask what we’ve learned from the mushroom cloud that swelled above this city in 1945,” the UNSG said.

The world had been stunned by the dropping of atomic bombs by US bombers on Hiroshima (Little Boy) and Nagasaki (Fat Boy). They instantly killed 1-2 lakh people and destroyed the infrastructure of both cities. Left with no choice, Japan surrendered on August 15. It formally brought an end to the World War II. It seems, rattled by the prospects of impending Russian advances that would have forced the Japanese to surrender to them, US President Truman ordered the use of bombs that changed the world order forever. “Japan was already defeated… dropping the bomb was completely unnecessary,” President Dwight Eisenhower said years later.

On May 27, 2016, Barack Obama became the first sitting US President to appear at the Hiroshima bomb site. Obama laid a wreath at Hiroshima’s Peace Memorial Park and paid homage to the departed souls. “We stand here in the middle of this city and force ourselves to imagine the moment the bomb fell... we listen to a silent cry…demonstrated that mankind possessed the means to destroy itself,” Obama said. Though short of a formal US apology, the sheer presence of the US President at the site of Hiroshima bombing reflected the quest for atonement and time as the final arbiter for all.

Over the past 77 years, global efforts have sought to realise the dream of nuclear non-proliferation, nuclear weapons free world and universal disarmament. In this respect, the 1968 Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) has been a significant pillar. Its 191 state parties assembled in New York during August 1-26, for the NPT Tenth Review. It took place in the aftermath of an unprecedented January 3, 2022, joint statement of the leaders of the five nuclear-weapon states for Preventing Nuclear War and Avoiding Arms Races. “We affirm that a nuclear war cannot be won and must never be fought. As nuclear use would have far-reaching consequences, we also affirm that nuclear weapons — for as long as they continue to exist — should serve defensive purposes, deter aggression, and prevent war,” the joint statement proclaimed. They also reiterated their commitment (NPT article VI) “to pursue negotiations in good faith on effective measures relating to cessation of the nuclear arms race at an early date and to nuclear disarmament, and on a treaty on general and complete disarmament.”

Ahead of the NPT review, the International Campaign against Nuclear Weapons (ICAN) carried out a legal analysis. It showed that the nuclear arsenals of China and Russia have grown; the UK has raised the cap on the maximum number of warheads and the five nuclear states spent billions of dollars on nuclear weapons. Have they pursued negotiations in good faith (NPT article VI obligation) to end the nuclear arms race? The aftermath of the February 24 Russian ‘special military operation’ in Ukraine and the threat of potential use of nuclear weapons pose a grave risk to the efficacy of the NPT. Sweden and Norway have also indicated the adoption of a new security posture.

The Comprehensive Nuclear Test-Ban Treaty (CTBT), adopted vide the General Assembly resolution 50/245 on September 10, 1996, requires ratification by “all states listed in Annex 2 to the Treaty”. The basic obligation under CTBT would be “not to carry out any nuclear weapon test explosion or any other nuclear explosion”. As on August 1, 174 nations have ratified CTBT. Still, seven are left — US, China, India, Pakistan, Israel, Iran and North Korea — out of 44 (Annex 2, Article XIV) whose ratification is essential for CTBT to come into force.

Interestingly, all nations proclaim the objective of elimination of nuclear weapons. India’s nuclear doctrine of January 4, 2003, swears by the “commitment to the goal of a nuclear weapon-free world, through global, verifiable and non-discriminatory nuclear disarmament”. Ironically, the technical barriers remain in the operationalisation of international legal instruments for elimination of nuclear weapons. These arise from all pervasive human insecurity and the streak to dominate others. Only time shall bring sanity in the minds of those who swear by the nuclear sword by delegitimising its use either by accident or design for the safety of life on our only one earth.