India eyes strategic interests in Myanmar

Maj Gen Ashok K Mehta (retd)
Military Commentator

The coup in Myanmar is in its third month with battle lines drawn clearly between the military and an effective non-violent campaign threatening to blow up into a civil war. The Tatmadaw (military) did not expect people’s resistance on this scale and intensity, making the coup a miscalculation. It peaked on Armed Force Day (March 27) when 110 persons were killed, taking the coup death toll to 560. The coup has united the people though Buddhist monks have not joined. While the junta has established a State Administration Council (SAC), an underground group of NLD lawmakers calling itself the Committee Representing National Parliament (CRPH) has declared the 2008 military-drafted Constitution void replacing it with an interim charter. It has secured an alliance with the Ethnic Armed Organisations (EAOs) as a federal army against the junta.

The Civil Disobedience Movement (CDM) of unarmed protesters has escalated vertically and horizontally with bank and revenue officials, hospital staff and garbage collectors on strike. The General Strike Committee of Nationalities has urged the EAOs to support CDM. In the industrial zone of Yangon, 32 Chinese-owned factories and shops of Myanmar Economic Holdings linked to the military were set ablaze causing damage worth $34 million and anti-Chinese sentiment due to Beijing’s muted criticism of the coup. The military is suspicious of China and seeks India’s countervailing influence. China’s objective is to protect its $100 billion China-Myanmar Economic Corridor connecting Yunan province with oil and gas fields in Rakhine state.

Myanmar is the least developed country in ASEAN and accounts for just 2 per cent of its GDP. The US has applied blanket sanctions, suspended bilateral trade agreement and targeted specific military and police officers and nine military-owned companies. The Federal Bank of New York halted withdrawals of $1 billion by the military. Threats of nationalisation could reverse liberalisation reform and kill investor confidence. Resistance to the coup has created financial chaos, shortage of fuel and commodities. Trade and development were going good, especially in the power sector, given the six to seven hour power cuts in 2019. Japan International Cooperation Agency (JICA) has backed a 170-MW solar plant and universal electrification by 2030, supported by an NLD approved $ 21 billion project in the power sector which is more than the investment in defence. Japan is also invested in Thilawa Special Economic Zone though Singapore is the largest FDI holder. Due to daily protests, the country’s fledgling stock market lists only six stocks with trading volumes dipping more than 60 per cent. The crackdown has crippled the private sector and spooked investors. Twenty years ago, Myanmar was worse off than North Korea. Now, the youth feel their future has been snatched.

The military parade on March 27 was a display of pomp and power with the Russian deputy defence minister as the chief guest. Moscow has become an alternate and additional source of military hardware, other than Beijing. Attending the parade were defence attaches from Russia, China, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Vietnam, Laos, Thailand and notably India. Conspicuously absent was Indonesia whose military chief berated the junta and advised building a professional armed police in a democratic context. Myanmar has the second largest army (350,000) after Vietnam, consisting of 10 light divisions. The 33 Light Infantry Division (LID) is an elite and loyal combat unit earmarked for situations of civilian unrest. The 1962 coup by General Ne Win was internal to the military and almost bloodless. In 1988, Senior General Saw Maung overplayed his hand killing 3,000 protesters across Myanmar. In the 2007 Monks Uprising (saffron revolution), 31 civilians were killed. In 2017, the 33 Light Infantry Division was used against the Rohingya in operations masterminded by the present coup leader, Senior General Min Aung Hlaing, who is an LID veteran and served in 88 LID under Colonel (later Senior General) Than Shwe, who ultimately handed over the C-in-C charge to Hlaing. The junta’s revised roadmap to democratic transition is through military rule in civilian clothes with elections as an exit strategy which is also the modus operandi for Hlaing to become the next President of Myanmar. He wants a return to 2011 when the USDP (military-backed political party) formed the government.

There are no young Turks in the SAC to challenge the old order making any counter-coup far-fetched. The military will hold an election when conditions permit for a disciplined democracy. Bamars and ethnic groups are fleeing across the border in Thailand and India into Mizoram and Manipur where the initial orders to block their entry were rescinded. India has only recently celebrated 50 years of Bangladesh’s independence when it hosted 10 million refugees.

Torn between values and interests in 1988, India opted for a democratic transition and rule of law to side with NLD’s Aung San Suu Kyi over the military which had seized power. As this choice backfired, a course correction was made. With a hybrid power-sharing arrangement of civil-military rule in place since 2015, New Delhi was able to balance the two power centres. Last year, it sent for the first time, a joint civil military delegation to Myanmar consisting of Foreign Secretary Harsh Vardhan Shringla and Army Chief General MM Naravane.

New Delhi has a lot going for it across its third frontier in Myanmar: Neighbourhood First, Act East and the Indo-Pacific Strategy. In keeping the India-Myanmar border free of sanctuaries for Indian insurgent groups, Tatmadaw has helped significantly. Much was made of Senior General Hlaing when he visited India in 2019, including the gifting of a conventional Russian Kilo-class submarine.

New Delhi has neither condemned the coup nor the military for violence against the Myanmarese protesters. India has walked a diplomatic tightrope in preserving ties with the military that it needs for its strategic security, connectivity and countering China. Combating the CDM, CRPH and EAOs will be long and bloody for the junta. Resonating on the streets of Myanmar are two words: ‘youth’ and ‘their future’. India must creatively maintain equidistance from the military and the resistance forces. This botched coup is going nowhere anytime soon and requires a political exit under the new India-Japan Act East Forum with ASEAN legwork to circumvent its non-interference in the internal affairs clause.