Hard sledding for Pakistan

G Parthasarathy
Chancellor, Jammu Central University & former High Commissioner to Pakistan

Imran khan was struggling on March 30 to meet the challenges posed by a united opposition to force him out of office by a vote in Parliament. In the midst of this situation Pakistan army chief General Bajwa, accompanied by ISI chief Lt Gen Nadeem Anjum, met PM Imran Khan. General Bajwa’s message was blunt and clear. Imran was told that he would have to seek an immediate vote of confidence in Parliament to avoid national unrest. What followed was a desperate attempt by Imran to appear to be a martyr, whose very existence was being challenged by General Bajwa and the US.

The Sharif family has fond memories of its association with India. But there should be no illusions that Shehbaz would disagree with the army, especially on J&K.

Imran’s struggle to remain in office at any cost came to an end during the early hours of April 10. It was officially declared that the opposition had secured a majority of 174 votes in the 342-member National Assembly. In the meantime, Pakistan had gone through a political drama. Imran, backed by his chosen Speaker and Deputy Speaker, tried every trick in the book to ensure that any no-confidence vote would be postponed indefinitely. Not surprisingly, this effort failed. The way was cleared for a new government, led by Shehbaz Sharif, a former CM of Punjab and younger brother of former PM Nawaz Sharif, to assume office as PM.

The two largest parties in Pakistan’s new ruling coalition are the Pakistan Muslim League, led by Shehbaz Sharif, and the Pakistan People’s Party (PPP), led by Benazir Bhutto’s son, Bilawal Bhutto Zardari. Bilawal derives his strength primarily in Sind and has a small representation in Punjab. On the other hand, the Sharif family, which derives its strength from the politically powerful Punjab province, had seen a significant fall in their vote share in the last parliamentary elections, in 2018. With Nawaz Sharif heading the party, the Pakistan Muslim League (PML-N) won 166 seats out of 342 seats in 2014. Matters changed drastically for the PML(N) in 2018, when the party won only 82 seats. Imran’s Tehreek-e-Insaf was swept to power in 2018, winning 149 seats nationally. With Imran’s party losing the support of its coalition partners, a new coalition, bringing together two major parties, the PML (N) and the PPP, along with smaller parties, has now emerged.

Shehbaz Sharif faces serious problems in dealing with Pakistan’s internal problems. He has proclaimed that his government would ‘soothe the wounds of the nation’ and ‘not indulge in politics of revenge’. For good measure, he added: ‘We will not send people to jail for no reason.’ In short, he ruled out resort to arbitrary violation of human rights, as practised by the Imran dispensation. But, there are far more serious problems he has to address. Pakistan’s GDP has fallen drastically from $315 billion to $292 billion in the past four years. Its GDP has fallen below that of Bangladesh in the same period. Imran has the unique distinction of being the first PM to lead Pakistan, when its GDP fell below that of Bangladesh.

Given its terribly meagre rates of domestic savings, it is going to be difficult for Pakistan to reverse its downward economic trend.

While Pakistan’s economy was doing relatively well when American money was flowing in during the US war against the Taliban, liberal flows of American aid are not available now. There is also little prospect of Pakistan either abiding by the provisions of the South Asia Free Trade Agreement, or promoting economic ties with India. This is unlike what all other South Asian countries have done to promote regional economic cooperation.

After Vajpayee’s visit to Pakistan in 1999, Shehbaz Sharif, then the CM of Punjab, had expressed an interest in visiting Bangalore to get a view of the rapid development of the IT industry. It is, however, evident that he will now have to move very carefully on economic and other ties with India. General Bajwa was, and is regarded, as being more cautious and restrained in sponsoring cross-border terrorism than his predecessors. He, however, could not ignore the excessively close relationship between Imran and former ISI chief Lt Gen Faiz Hameed. He suddenly ordered the transfer of the ISI chief to command army units on Pakistan’s borders with Afghanistan. When it was clear that Imran was determined to undermine the Supreme Court’s decision for him to seek a vote of confidence, General Bajwa warned Imran of serious consequences if he tried to undermine the court’s directions. Imran inevitably fell in line, and was voted out of office.

Pakistan is now heading for uncertain times. While parliamentary elections have to be held by October 2023, the most crucial decision that PM Sharif has to take in October this year, is the appointment of a new army chief, when General Bajwa’s term ends. Will he be granted a second extension, is an open question. While Pakistan has been forced to take legal action against Hafiz Saeed, following the orders of the Financial Action Task Force, organisations like the Lashkar-e-Taiba and the Jaish-e-Mohammed remain intact. Kashmir remains a ‘core issue’ for Pakistan.

Shehbaz Sharif visited India in 2013 and met PM Manmohan Singh and others. The Sharif family retains fond memories of its old association with India. There should, however, be no illusions about Shehbaz Sharif disagreeing with anything Pakistan’s army seeks to do, especially in Jammu and Kashmir. The entire infrastructure of terrorism still remains in place, across the Line of Control. Despite these developments, channels of communication with Pakistan should be strengthened, together with the restoration of ambassadorial level, full-fledged diplomatic representation. The Sharif government is facing serious economic challenges today. Imran Khan is, at the same time, demanding early elections. Pakistan is heading for turbulent times.

#nawaz sharif #Pakistan #shehbaz sharif