Gulf opens door to Assad

K. P. Nayar
Strategic Analyst

Syria’s President Bashar Al Assad took one short flight to Abu Dhabi 10 days ago, but it was a giant leap in regional politics and diplomacy in the Arab world in the context of the Russia-Ukraine war, to paraphrase the first voyager to the moon, Neil Armstrong.

The war in Ukraine has changed strategic equations, posing the biggest diplomatic challenge to the US since the Cold War ended.

Assad arrived in Abu Dhabi on March 18, then travelled to Dubai and went back home that same night after whirlwind meetings in both cities. His visit was not made public until Assad, whom many of his enemies would like to shoot down in mid-air or capture alive by forcing his flight down somewhere, had returned to the safety of his presidential palace in Damascus.

Even by the traditional standards of warm hospitality which the Gulf is famous for, the welcome which the Syrian President received on his whistle-stop tour of the UAE was effusive. The Crown Prince of Abu Dhabi, Sheikh Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan – who is credited in India as the leader who set India-UAE relations on a new trajectory – saw off Assad at the airport. This was a rare gesture by the Crown Prince’s normal yardsticks of protocol.

Given the extreme risks associated with the visit, Assad’s meetings in Dubai did not take place in a palace, which is the usual venue. They were held in a rest house. Such summits with heads of state are seldom held in a rest house. Sheikh Mohammed bin Rashid Al Maktoum, UAE’s Vice-President, PM and Ruler of Dubai, held extensive talks with the Syrians, aided by an impressively long list of who-is-who in the country’s federal government.

Predictably, the UAE’s accommodation of Assad drew the ire of Washington, which said it was ‘profoundly disappointed and troubled’ that one of its closest friends in the Arab world had legitimised a regime, which successive US Presidents had tried to overthrow. Since the ‘Arab Spring’ movement for democratic change briefly blossomed in Syria a decade ago this month, Assad had been confined to his country, fighting for his survival. His political demise was repeatedly predicted during this decade like that of Cuba’s Fidel Castro, who defied those predictions for over half a century.

Assad had visited Russia, of course, since the Arab Spring nearly drove him out of office. And Iran too. Russia has been the guarantor of Syria’s security ever since former US President Barack Obama called the Assad government’s alleged used of chemical weapons on civilians in 2013 a ‘red line’ and threatened to bomb the regime in Damascus out of existence. When Russia subsequently intervened militarily on Assad’s side, Washington had to hold its hands or risk a Third World War.

For Iran and Syria, the US is a common enemy. Both countries will now be emboldened to take advantage that the Biden administration is overstretched on account of the war in Ukraine and cannot spread itself thinner than it already is in military terms. Any Arab country seeking the diplomatic rehabilitation of Syria is sending a message to Washington that it cannot be business as before.

Through the UAE’s official media, the Abu Dhabi Crown Prince conveyed his country’s view that ‘Syria is a fundamental pillar of Arab security, and that the UAE is keen to strengthen cooperation with it to achieve the aspirations of the brotherly Syrian people towards stability and development.’ The UAE once supported the anti-Assad rebels, who were armed and trained mainly by the US. A change of heart in favour of Assad in an important Arab capital means that the US has to rethink any plans it had for regime change in Damascus.

Not all of the visits by foreign ministers of Qatar, Turkey, Iran and the UAE to Moscow during the crucial one week before the start of Russia’s military operations in Ukraine have been confirmed by all the parties involved. But one thing is clear: Russian President Vladimir Putin is not isolated or universally ostracised, as it has been made out to be. And the war in Ukraine has changed strategic equations in the Gulf – and perhaps in the broader Arab world — posing the biggest diplomatic challenge to Washington since the Cold War ended.

Consider this: The US Navy’s Fifth Fleet is based in Bahrain. The kingdom is also home to the US Naval Forces Central Command. By any stretch, Bahrain has been among the closest of US allies in the Arab world. Yet, last fortnight, Bahrain’s King Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa spoke on the phone to Putin amid persistent reports — reliable enough, but never officially confirmed — that the King refused to take a phone call from Biden.

Saudi Arabia has been equally close to the US for centuries. Yet, its King, Salman bin Abdulaziz Al Saud, resisted taking a call from Biden seeking support after the Ukraine war began. It is a big change in a matter of weeks. Only on February 9, the King had readily taken Biden’s call. At that time, the Saudi Crown Prince, Mohammed bin Salman, had cancelled his Winter Olympics-related China trip to be present when Biden phoned the King.

As recently as last week, US Secretary of State of Antony Blinken wanted to visit the giant oil-producing kingdom, but the Saudis refused to receive him. A foreign ministry statement explaining this polite refusal must rank in the annals of Arab diplomacy as a classic in diplomatic drafting.

The Americans want Saudi Arabia and the UAE to increase oil production to reduce prices worldwide. They also want help from both these oil-rich monarchies to dismantle cooperation between the Saudi-dominated OPEC and the Russian-led OPEC Plus to isolate Russia in the global energy market. But neither Gulf state is willing to toe Biden’s plan.

When the going gets bad for a superpower, even worms turn against it. That is the developing American state-of-play in the Arab world, as demonstrated by Iraq, whose government itself is dependent on Washington’s political and financial generosity. Iraq has sided with the UAE and Saudi Arabia in rejecting Biden’s request to pump more oil. Through State Oil Marketing Organisation, Iraq also endorsed OPEC’s continuing cooperation with OPEC Plus giving Putin a much-needed shot in the arm.