China capitalising on the undefined LAC

Maj-Gen Ashok K Mehta (retd)

Military Commentator

Coinciding with 70 years of India-China diplomatic ties and on the 74th Independence Day, soon after Prime Minister Narendra Modi had spoken from the Red Fort, lambasting China without naming it for aggression and expansionism — diplomatic invectives usually reserved for Pakistan — Beijing rebuffed New Delhi’s call for full restoration of peace and tranquillity on the border, despite a positive readout on disengagement after the latest diplomatic parleys.

Defence Minister Rajnath Singh and Northern Army Commander, Lt Gen YK Joshi’s doubts about the realisation of the restoration of status quo ante on April 19 were confirmed. Indian Ambassador in Beijing Vikram Misri has been pleading with Chinese officials in the Central Military Commission and the Communist Party for return of peace and stability along the LAC even as Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi and Ambassador in India Sun Weidong blamed New Delhi for the Galwan clash, calling for disciplining Indian soldiers who crossed on to China’s side of the LAC.

To recap, the situation along the LAC amplifies that the disengagement process has broken down as the PLA has withdrawn only about one km from the Hot Springs-Kungrang River-Goghra junction points. Only in Galwan, the disengagement is four km, of which three kilometres is on the Indian side of the LAC.

Through a wily template of a separation of forces, the PLA has imposed a four kilometre buffer zone quarantining Indian troops, depriving them of their patrolling rights to patrolling points along India’s perception of the LAC. China has pushed its LAC to conform to the 1959 claim line, annexing several hundred square kilometres of the Indian territory.

The Indian non-response to the renewed Chinese assertion of what India calls its ‘unilateral aggression’ is to emphasise that the Indian troops will remain deployed opposite multiple intrusion points as long as the PLA does not disengage completely.

This is India in despair, unable to make China vacate the intrusions and now doing a kind of military satyagraha. But Modi has insisted ‘what India can do, the world has seen in Ladakh.’ Given that border protocols bar the use of military force, though unarmed combat is permitted as Galwan demonstrated, India should have intruded across the Chinese LAC at suitable places, besides blocking PLA intrusions. As the military option was realistically unavailable, an alternative to impose costs on China is paramount. The belated mention by CDS Gen Rawat of a military option appears  more symbolic than effective coercion. 

The Modi government has perfected a two-strand border policy against China. Internally, it is telling the aam aadmi that all is well along the LAC. The focus has been shifted from multiple intrusions ceding territory to Galwan, where the PLA was given a befitting reply.

On August 14-15, the salvo of ‘befitting replies’ was delivered sequentially by the Defence Minister, President and Prime Minister ‘if India is attacked’, while hailing the valour of the brave and launching proxy attacks on China. The government has stuck to the denial of China’s land-grab by taking down from the MoD website the specifications of the intrusions. But India’s sovereignty has been attacked.

The second strand of the LAC policy which contradicts the first, addresses the intrusions diplomatically, but essentially bilaterally, without naming China as the aggressor. The Chinese are extremely sensitive to being named, blamed and shamed. In 1998, after India’s nuclear tests, a letter written by the Government of India was leaked in the US which named China as the rationale for the nuclear tests, which incensed Beijing.

It required Foreign Minister Jaswant Singh having to retract the accusation in Beijing and in full glare of the media by saying that ‘China is not a threat to India.’ The famous Chinese aphorism ‘those who tie the knot must untie it first’ derives from such situations. Still, it will not be easy for India to maintain its charade on the LAC — portraying defeat as victory.

India’s friends, the US, the UK and others, may have sympathised with New Delhi, but except for Washington which has called out China’s aggression, no country has specifically targeted Beijing for its territorial assertion.

This is especially true in India’s immediate and extended neighbourhood where even Bhutan is silent. In many ways, India’s plight is similar to that of the Philippines where President Duterte has said that though he has a favourable verdict from the UNCLOS in 2016, on his country’s territorial claim, he cannot challenge China militarily.

India has been signalling for some time now that it is considering de-coupling the border and overall relations and imposing economic costs. It has said that peace and tranquillity on the border are essential and necessary preconditions for normal bilateral relations.

So far, New Delhi has not crossed the red line as it hopes that Beijing will see sense in restoring normalcy across the LAC. But it is China that is capitalising from the advantages of an undefined LAC even as India faces its periodic perils.

The next level of dialogue is between the two special representatives — NSA AK Doval and Foreign Minister Wang Yi, who has been quite vituperative on the border clash and pinned the blame on India. He has been visiting military facilities in Tibet where the PLA recently carried out extensive battle drills, which China’s foreign ministry spokesperson described as not directed at any country.

Apparently, the two summits between Modi and President Xi Jinping at Wuhan and Mahabalipuram, the Chennai connect, have imploded, though the Chinese are still recalling their virtues. Through all the tea-drinking ceremonies, India failed to read the tea leaves. The strategic guidance given by the two leaders to their militaries, especially Xi’s Training Mobilisation Order in January that launched the intrusions, was a second stab in Modi’s back after Chumar in 2014.

Still, as diplomacy is the only way forward to untie the knot, a serious political engagement is vital. President Putin, who enjoys the best of relations with Modi (Sochi and Vladivostok summits) and Xi (who said in June 2019 that Putin is his best friend and colleague), can help break the stalemate.