Chance for India, Pakistan to mend ties

Sudheendra Kulkarni
Former close aide to ex-PM Vajpayee and Founder, Forum for a New South Asia

Pakistan witnessed a serious constitutional crisis, which, praise be to its Supreme Court, has been defused. For all the well-known flaws in its political system — engineered defections, unprincipled alliances and the growing influence of big money, which also are, unfortunately, common in India — the country’s constitutional order has been strengthened by the apex court’s order to restore the national assembly. We should hope that all political parties and other stakeholders in its democracy act in a responsible and self-restrained manner so that in due course, the people elect a new government in free and fair elections.

From India’s point of view, two positive developments have taken place in the course of this turmoil. First, Imran Khan, the outgoing prime minister who has alleged a US-led foreign conspiracy to oust his government, has heaped fulsome praise on India for its independent foreign policy. Second — and this is more important — Pakistan’s powerful army chief, General Qamar Javed Bajwa, has yet again reached out to India with a message of peace, which the Modi government must not reject.

Addressing the ‘Islamabad Security Dialogue’ conference on April 2, he said, “Pakistan believes in using dialogue and diplomacy to resolve all outstanding issues, including the Kashmir dispute, peacefully and is ready to move forward on this front if India agrees to do so. We believe that peace and stability in our wider region are prerequisites for achieving shared regional prosperity and development. Our doors are open for all our neighbours.”

To drive home his point, he used a cautionary argument. “With one-third of the world in the Gulf region and elsewhere involved in some sort of conflict and war, it is important that we keep the flames of fire away from our region,” he said. The warning is pertinent. Can either India or Pakistan emulate Russia’s example of the invasion of Ukraine to realise their respective claims on Kashmir without both getting burnt in the war’s flames of fire? No.

This is not the first time that Bajwa has spoken in favour of peace with India. He regards religious extremism, not India, to be a greater threat to Pakistan’s national security. In February last year, he had boldly said, “We stand firmly committed to the ideal of mutual respect and peaceful co-existence. It is time to extend a hand of peace in all directions.”

A concrete outcome of Bajwa’s constructive approach, which was reciprocated by India, was that on February 25 last year, our two countries declared ceasefire along the Line of Control (LoC). The frequent cross-border firings, in which thousands of soldiers and innocent civilians belonging to both India and Pakistan lost their lives, have stopped for over a year now. This is by no means a small achievement.

Again, in a statesman-like speech in March last year, he stated: “It is time to bury the past and move forward…It is naive to apply the failed solutions of yesteryears to the challenges of today and tomorrow...” He urged Pakistan and India not to remain stuck “in the acrimony and toxicity of the past, continue promoting conflict and get into another vicious cycle of war, disease and destruction.”

Instead, he said they should choose “to move ahead, bring the dividends of our technological and scientific advancements to our people and usher in a new era of peace and prosperity.” He sharpened this message even more in his latest speech on April 2, when he said, “I believe it is time for the political leadership of the region to rise above their emotional and perceptual biases and break the shackles of history to bring peace and prosperity to almost three billion people of the region.”

What could be the reasons compelling Pakistan’s military to seek peace with India? Pakistan is going through an acute economic crisis, which has made its military leaders to do some introspection. Pakistan spends nearly $10 billion on defence, has about 5,50,000 personnel in the army. As Bajwa himself explained, “We have done a study whereby we can reduce the size of the army substantially over the next five years... Since Pakistan’s concerns are its people, we want to put the money where the mouth is. Today, Pakistan stands at the crossroads of its economic and strategic goals. It has north-south connectivity (Pakistan to Afghanistan to Central Asia and Russia). We want to build connectivity from east to west (India to Iran). This will increase trade and benefit Pakistan and the region. We want to move from geostrategy to geoeconomics and make Pakistan a modern and forward-looking country.”

When he was asked how he aimed to realise this vision, he replied, “It is time for Pakistan and India to move on. Let us sit down and resolve our issues, including Kashmir... We want development first.”

Many people in India believe that Pakistan has become a stooge of China. This is not true. Bajwa has asserted that Pakistan does not want to be a “camp follower” of any foreign power, and seeks friendly relations with all, including the United States. “Pakistan should have an independent foreign policy,” he said.

Pakistan’s ability to follow a truly independent foreign policy would be greatly enhanced if it befriended India and established mutually beneficial good-neighbourly relations. Cooperation with India would make Pakistan economically stronger. And an economically stronger and internally harmonious Pakistan can better balance its relations with the USA, China, Saudi Arabia and other powers.

Peace and friendship with Pakistan are also vital for India’s own strategic interests, including for Hindu-Muslim amity. Therefore, it is time for the two countries to seek cooperative bilateral relations without old prejudices.

General Bajwa will retire in November this year. Hence, there is a small window of opportunity for the next six months in which India and Pakistan can resume dialogue and achieve a meaningful breakthrough. Prime Minister Narendra Modi should respond positively to the peace message from our western neighbour — coming from none other than its army chief.