At 4.6%, Chandigarh’s growth rate higher than Delhi, Maharashtra

Naina Mishra

Tribune News Service

Chandigarh, August 9

At 4.6 per cent, Chandigarh’s average growth rate of Covid cases has now surpassed the current growth rate of two states – Delhi (0.8 per cent) and Maharashtra (2.4 per cent) — that account for high caseload of Covid-19 in the country.

“Delhi and Maharashtra may have crossed the peak and that’s why the Covid-19 curve has started to show a downward trend. Chandigarh has now started progressing towards the peak and hence, the growth rate is on the higher side,” explains Dr Rajesh Kumar, former Head of the Department of Community Medicine and School of Public Health, PGIMER.

Dr Kumar added: “The pace of epidemic may vary from place to place. The epidemic is in the growing stage at the moment in Chandigarh. The nature of the virus is such that it grows rapidly as it is communicable. Downward and upward trends depend on the containment measures taken by the authorities.”

According to Dr Rijo M John, a consultant economist and public health analyst based in Kerala, said: “Delhi has clearly reached the Covid peak, at least for now. Chandigarh is still in the early phase of it.”

Earlier, the UT had estimated 3,300 infections as peak infections in the contingency plan. However, the data was not subjected to any evidence. Chandigarh has already crossed half of the Covid peak numbers (1,515) estimated by the UT.

Increase testing

Hotspot Bapu Dham Colony is an example of a downward trend in the growth rate of Covid cases. Bapu Dham reported its first case on April 24 and in no time, a total of 250 cases (40% of the total cases of Chandigarh) were reported by July 6.

The epidemic curve of Bapu Dham showed a gradual increase in the cases with two peaks at an interval of 15 days since the reporting of the first case. The gradual decrease and a plateau in the curve was achieved starting from May 16. Since June 16, sporadic cases are being reported in the area.

“Chandigarh was able to achieve a descending trend in Bapu Dham Colony with measures such as increased testing and isolating the high-risk contacts. A similar aggressive approach is needed for the whole city as this is the only way to check the spread of virus,” said Dr Kumar.

“All those with mild diseases should be tested and their contacts should be traced timely. Antigen facility may be made available in the dispensaries so that more people can get themselves tested and may quickly be isolated,” he said.