ADB improves growth forecast for India

Tribune News Service

New Delhi, December 10

The Asian Development Bank has improved the growth forecast for India, sub-region South Asia’s largest economy, from a contraction of 9 per cent to a contraction of 8 per cent for fiscal 2020.

In a supplement to its Asian Development Outlook (ADO) 2020, the ADB improved the forecast for the South Asia region to a contraction of 6.1 per cent in 2020, up from the 6.8 per cent contraction it had expected in September.

Growth in South Asia is forecast to rebound to 7.2 per cent in 2021.

The latest assessment has basically upgraded growth projections for China and India, the region’s two largest economies.

Overall, economic activity in developing Asia is forecast to contract by 0.4 per cent this year, before picking up to 6.8 per cent in 2021 as the region moves toward recovery from the effects of the pandemic, it said.

“The prospects are diverging within the region, with East Asia set to grow this year while other sub-regions are contracting,’’ said the report.

Most of developing Asia’s sub-regions are forecast to contract this year but East Asia is the exception, with an upgraded growth forecast of 1.6 per cent for 2020 on the back of faster than expected recoveries in China and Taiwan. East Asia’s growth outlook for 2021 has been maintained at 7 per cent.

“A prolonged pandemic remains the primary risk, but recent developments on the vaccine front are tempering this. Safe, effective, and timely vaccine delivery in developing economies will be critical to support the reopening of economies and the recovery of growth in the region,” said the ADB.