Southwest monsoon having a dream run, say experts

Vibha Sharma

Tribune News Service

New Delhi, June 24

Aided by several weather factors, the southwest monsoon has covered most parts of Himachal Pradesh and Uttarakhand, the whole of Jammu and Kashmir, some parts of Punjab and east Rajasthan, weather forecasters said on Friday. The Indian Meteorological Department perdicts that it will advance to the remaining parts of the country in the next 48 hours.

The Northern Limit of Monsoon (NLM) is currently passing through Deesa, Guna, Siddhi, Ballia, Bahraich, Pantnagar, Dehradun, Una and Amritsar.

Punjab, Haryana, Delhi, Himachal Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Jammu and Kashmir and also Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan and Gujarat are likely to receive good amount of rainfall on Thursday. Hilly areas of North India, such as Himachal Pradesh, could especially witness heavy rains, predicts private forecaster Skymet. Gujarat could also witness heavy downpour.  

The winds will then weaken as they turn eastward and concentrate over Uttarakhand and east UP, forecasters say.

“There may be a lull in rain activity over the plains for the next two to three days after which the monsoon system will again gain strength, resulting in above normal rains in June,” says Symet’s Mahesh Palawat.

The rainfall thus far has been better than expected, belaying predictions of below average rainfall. While some international weather forecasting agencies have predicted further strengthening of the dreaded El Nino factor — raising fears that monsoon will be affected —Palawat says that Indian Ocean Dipole will help negate the effect.

“The IOD which is currently neutral is expected to turn positive and balance the negative effects of El Nino,” he says.
Several factors are adding the monsoons progress but forecasters also say that a break-monsoon period is likely in the first week of July (between July 3 and 6) and another one later in the month (between July 23 and 26).

Monsoon’s current progress can be attributed to several factors — including a deep depression, Western Disturbance, off-shore trough and cyclonic circulation, says Skymet.
In the northern parts of the country, a Western Disturbance over J&K has resulted in rainfall in the region. A cyclonic circulation seen over Central Pakistan and adjoining Punjab region has resulted in the formation of an east to west trough up to the low-pressure area across Uttar Pradesh.

In April, the IMD predicted that rains in the country would be 93 per cent of the average — that is, below normal. It revised this projection to 88 per cent — deficient rainfall — and predicted that the northwest region of the country, composed of Punjab, Haryana, Jammu and Kashmir, Uttarakhand, Himachal Pradesh, Rajasthan and Western UP, was most likely to be affected by it.

The weather office had also predicted that was 90% probability of the El Nino conditions remaining throughout the season. 

Despite the current progress of monsoon, some weather experts still maintain that the EL Nino conditions could affect rainfall between June and September.