Vibha Sharma
Tribune News Service
New Delhi, June 16
After Cyclone Vayu crosses the Gujarat coast, possibly on Monday evening, a movement is expected in the monsoon current whose progress has so far been stalled by the cyclone.
The overall rain deficiency in the country has been hovering around an ominous 45 per cent due to a sluggish monsoon.
According to the IMD, Vayu is expected to re-curve gradually northeastwards. The cyclone is expected to cross the north Gujarat coast by midnight of June 17 as a “depression”.
While that would put an end to the long and arduous journey of the cyclone, it will also pave the way for monsoon winds to move up towards the Arabian Sea, say experts.
As the cyclone’s intensity decreases the monsoon current is expected to revive in the next couple of days.
Notably, cyclones that develop in the Arabian Sea impact Southwest monsoon more than those generated in the Bay of Bengal.
India is currently facing severe water scarcity amplified by a dip in the water level in reservoirs, deficient rainfall in the month of June and due to the severe heat wave conditions prevailing in certain parts of the country.
Even though Punjab, Haryana and adjoining parts in UP and Delhi are currently experiencing dust storms and gusty winds, the two states are expected to receive below normal rains this monsoon.
“Though Delhi is expected to receive normal rains the same cannot be said about Punjab, Haryana and Chandigarh,” said Mahesh Palawat, VP Meteorology and Climate Change at weather forecasting company Skymet.
Experts, however, say that there is no correlation between the delay in the onset of the monsoon and the amount of rains. But had the monsoon reached central India by its due date, it would have provided a relief from the persisting heat wave.
As per schedule, the monsoon should have reached Central India, including parts of Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, eastern Uttar Pradesh and Gujarat by now. However, the monsoon has not even crossed Maharashtra up till now.
The Northern Limit of Monsoon (NLM) is passing through Mangaluru, Mysuru, Salem, Cuddalore, Goalpara, Alipurduar, Gangtok.
The western coast from Maharashtra to Gujarat has also been receiving rains due to Cyclone Vayu.
So far only coastal Karnataka and Kerala have received rains due to monsoon, which arrived a week late in Kerala on June 8.
The IMD says conditions are becoming favourable for the further advance of the southwest monsoon to parts of central Arabian Sea, Karnataka and remaining parts of Tamil Nadu. It is expected to spread to more parts of central, north and south Bay, northeast India, north Bengal and Sikkim in the next couple of days.
As per the Central Water Commission, water level in the reservoirs of South India and Maharashtra is lesser than the average of past 10 years. Several parts of the country are reeling under intense heat wave, especially Jharkhand, Bihar and Odisha.