Vibha Sharma
Tribune News Service
New Delhi, August 17
Despite the monsoon mayhem in Kerala and hills of North India last week, India has still registered six per cent less rain than normal.
The India Meteorological Department's latest data for the past week shows that southwest monsoon was above normal by 106 per cent over the Long Period Average (LPA) over South Peninsula, excess to above normal over 10 of 36 subdivisions of the country, normal over 6 and deficient to large deficient over 20.
Although Kerala and hilly regions of North India reeled under excess, the data proves rainfall distribution was lopsided. Despite ongoing chaos that rains wreaked, and continues to do so, in Kerala, the country on the whole registered six percent below the average rains this week and nine per cent below the average so far in this June-September season.
This uneven pattern is likely to continue over the coming weeks as well. Overall rainfall activity is likely to be normal to above normal over most of the country except parts of northern India in the first week beginning Friday. The IMD predicts that the second week will witness below normal rainfall over most parts of the country except its northern parts.
South peninsula received 89.7 mm rains this past week as compared to a normal of 43.6 mm rains—an excess at 106 per cent. In comparison, central parts received 51.8 mm rains against the normal of 70.7—a shortfall of 27 per cent—while east and northeast are struggled with 41 per cent deficiency.
Monsoon trough continues to oscillate away from its normal position. A low-pressure area has formed over West Bengal and Odisha that subsequently concentrated into a depression was now centred over East Vidarbha and its neighbourhood.
A trough from the cyclonic circulation associated with the above depression is extending up to south Gujarat across north Maharashtra between 3.1 and 5.8 km above mean sea level, while the axis of monsoon trough was at mean sea level lies to the south of its normal position.
A feeble off shore trough at mean sea level lies off Karnataka-north Kerala coasts and a low-pressure area is likely to develop over north Bay of Bengal and neighbourhood around August 19. A cyclonic circulation lies over northeast Afghanistan and neighbourhood between 3.1 and 5.8 km above mean sea level, the IMD said.
The depression over Vidarbha and neighbourhood is expected to move west-northwest-wards and weaken gradually into a well-marked low pressure area during next 24 hours. Under its influence, widespread rainfall with heavy to very heavy rainfall is likely over Vidarbha and Marathwada during next 24 hours and heavy rainfall at isolated places over West Vidarbha and Marathwada. Widespread rainfall with isolated heavy to very heavy rainfall and extremely heavy falls is also very likely over Madhya Maharashtra and north Konkan.
Fairly widespread to widespread very likely to continue over these regions for the remaining days of first week. The Gujarat region is very likely to receive rainfall at most places with isolated heavy to very heavy rainfall and isolated heavy to very heavy rain with extremely heavy falls. Saurashtra and Kutch is also very likely to receive heavy to very heavy rainfall at isolated places. Scattered to fairly widespread very likely to occur over these regions thereafter for remaining days of first week.
Widespread rainfall with heavy to very heavy rainfall at isolated places is also very likely over coastal and south interior Karnataka and Kerala during first half of the first week and decrease in intensity thereafter.
Fairly widespread to widespread rainfall with isolated heavy fall is likely over northeastern states, sub-Himalayan West Bengal and Sikkim during most days of the first week. Under the influence of a low pressure area that is likely to develop over north Bay of Bengal and neighbourhood around August 19, rainfall activity most likely to increase over east India (widespread rainfall with isolated heavy fall) during second half of the first week.
Scattered to fairly widespread rainfall activity is very likely to occur over remaining parts of the country outside Rayalaseema and Tamilnadu, where light isolated rainfall is very likely to occur during the 1st week.