BJP’s dilemma: Lok Sabha Elections post Kumbh 2019 or with upcoming Assembly polls

Vibha Sharma

Tribune News Service

New Delhi, July 10

 As chief Amit Shah continues with his whirlwind tour of the country to fine-tune the BJP’s poll plans for upcoming Lok Sabha elections, it so appears that a dilemma before him also is whether the Kumbh Mela in January 2019 and Assembly polls in 2018-end should be consideration. 

There are speculations the BJP may opt for early General Elections to coincide with Assembly polls in three party-held States—Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh. While the leadership has struck down the possibility, officially, those in know of the situation claim the option continue to be alive keeping in mind prevailing factors. 

Both options come with their plus and minus points

For example if the General Elections are held with Assembly polls in Chhattisgarh, Rajasthan and Madhya Pradesh (from where ground reports are far from encouraging for the BJP as of now), the BJP can hope to minimise the possibility of their results affecting it prospects in the Lok Sabha polls

But in that case the BJP will also not be able to encash a huge trump card it holds—the Kumbh Mela in January 2019 in Prayag (Allahabad) Uttar Pradesh, the land of Ram Janmabhoomi and Ayodhya. 

Sources say leaders of BJP and ideological fountainhead Sangh have held consultations on the issue, including the management part and also this curious predicament. According to some Sangh leaders, Kumbh can be an excellent opportunity to build mass contact and public relations with core Hindutva voters.

The BJP, they say, is “lucky” that General Elections will be held after Kumbh. And if the Yogi Adityanath-ld UP government and the Centre manages to please the saffron core constituency with good arrangements, the road to 2019 for Narendra Modi will become smoother. Kumbh can also provide a subtle way to shift sight from Ram Janmabhoomi issue while keeping alive the Hindutva agenda. 

However, Kumbh comes after Assembly polls, on which morale of BJP cadre is hinged. A poor performance in States can adversely affect the cadres more than anything else and in turn its Lok Sabha prospects, some believe.