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Manas Dasgupta
Ahmedabad, March 24
With no third party worth the name existing in Gujarat, it will be a straight fight between the BJP and the Congress in the home state of PM Modi. Though there is nothing to indicate that the PM’s popularity has diminished, it will still require a superlative effort by the BJP to repeat its performance of 2014 when it swept all 26 seats in the state. A cent per cent result in two consecutive elections is a rarity. It is unlikely that the BJP will be able to achieve the feat.
The erosion the BJP suffered in its vote share in the 2017 Assembly elections compared to the 2014 parliamentary elections has become a matter of concern for the party’s central leadership. Even in the worst times, the Congress has not polled less than 32% votes. In the last Lok Sabha polls, the BJP vote share went up to 60.09%. The Congress, though it failed to win a single seat, managed to secure 32% of the votes polled.
Post-2014, the Congress in the panchayat elections managed to regain some of the lost ground and the 2017 Assembly results came as a shock to the BJP. Though it was able to retain the majority in the 182-member House, its vote share dropped to 50% and that of the Congress went up to 42.2%, giving the party 77 seats.
To demoralise the Congress cadre on the eve of the 2019 Lok Sabha elections, the BJP has lured away five of its MLAs. However, unsure of the effect of the IAF airstrikes on Pakisan’s Balakot on the voters, the BJP, like the Congress, has worked on caste and regional combinations to pick candidates.
The Congress too is no better placed than it was two years ago. Party president Rahul Gandhi’s experiment to go with young leaders seems to have divided the party into groups. Disgruntled seniors have refused to cooperate with relatively junior leaders on important posts. Multiple ticket claimants coupled with a lack of unanimity on the state party leader has made the task of the high command even harder.
Any loss will mean loss of face for PM, Shah
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