India will have to wait

Activity inside the normally placid UN building in New York starts picking up with the beginning of the General Assembly calendar in September. If the spin by the Ministry of External Affairs is taken at its face value, the most important agenda item was the question of increasing the membership of the Security Council (UNSC) to reflect today’s realities of a multi-polar world. The five permanent members have so far been paying lip-service to the demand for expanding the UNSC. What has changed is the General Assembly has agreed to take up the issue during the ongoing session. But this may not be as big a victory for India as is portrayed by the MEA. 

India has positioned itself as a worthy candidate for permanent membership of the UNSC. It has formed a Group of Four (G-4) with Germany, Japan and Brazil to press for their inclusion as permanent members. But this G-4 is opposed by a 12-nation grouping known as Uniting for Consensus (UFC). The G-4 will have to convince the UFC to drop its opposition. That will take some doing. Pakistan, for example, opposes India’s bid, both Koreas and China are dead set against Japan becoming a permanent member, Argentina claims it is worthier than Brazil and Italy feels it has as strong a case as Germany.  

Besides, there is no deadline for the group set up for the purpose to submit its recommendations. The five permanent members may try delaying tactics and the 12-member UFC will push for its proposal of retaining the five permanent members and instead doubling the non-permanent members to 20.  They argue that countries like India can then get elected more frequently. Many countries outside the UFC and G-4 subscribe to this view. In addition, the changes in the UNSC are not only about expansion. There is a need to make the UNSC’s working methods more transparent, consultative and accountable. All in all, it may be quite a while before the UNSC membership chickens get hatched. It is too premature to start counting.