Unspeakable Middle East tragedy

S Nihal Singh

Dramatic advances by the Islamic State (IS), successor to the Isis, in the Syria-Iraq theatre of war represent a deep crisis for American policy. While the Obama administration has been seeking to extricate itself from the Middle East after the US misadventure in Iraq, events are pulling it more and more back into the quagmire. In Syria, the latest loss has been of the historic city of Palmyra, a world heritage site.

In Iraq, the loss of Ramadi, an hour's drive from Baghdad, set alarm bells ringing in the Iraqi capital and Washington, with Iraqi leaders hastily activating Shia militias, who have emerged as the doughtiest fighters against the IS and the US promising heavy ammunition to the Iraqi forces. It was the initial advance of the IS in Syria and Iraq that brought America back into the theatre of war by launching waves of American airstrikes.

A more contradictory set of circumstances and actions is hard to imagine. US airstrikes in Syria are helping President Bashar al-Assad (and indirectly Iran) even as official US policy is to ease him out. In Iraq, Ramadi and the whole of Anbar province is a Sunni stronghold even as the overthrow and killing of Saddam Hussein empowered the Shia majority to rule, the long-time former Prime Minister, Nori al-Maliki, exacerbating sectarian tensions further. In a sense many Sunnis were driven into the arms of the Isis and IS.

The help Americans would be providing to the Iraqi army buttressed by Shia militia by supplying ammunition and bombing runs will, in a sense, support Iranian objectives. Americans are, of course, seeking to finalise a framework agreement with Iran on its nuclear programme by the end of June. To allay Gulf kingdoms' disquiet on this score, President Obama held a summit meeting at Camp David, with Saudi Arabia's King Salman conspicuous by his absence. In the end, those who attended received less than what they desired: a new cast-iron defence guarantee.

The American predicament is part of the dilemmas facing many of the major actors in the region. The fact is that the Arab Spring that convulsed the Arab world starting 2011 came much before its time. Only Tunisia, where it started, remains the one sentinel of what might have been. Egypt reverted to type by staging a military coup after one-year rule by its first-ever honestly elected President Mohamed Morsi now being persecuted.

Nor are the other countries better off. Libya has been engulfed in a civil war after US and allied bombing runs leading to the murder of Gaddafi and is now ruled by two competing governments and unruly tribal militias. And Yemen has been added to the list by the initial dramatic advances of Houthis, a Shia sect backed by Iran, with the Saudis leading air strikes on their positions.

So where do the US, the regional players and the world go from here? President Obama has made his peace with the new military dispensation in Egypt, realpolitik trumping democracy yet again. Washington’s approach to President Assad has softened inasmuch as the IS presents a greater threat, with the question boiling down to which is the lesser evil, the President or the IS. Yemen remains a basket case, torn between two allegiances.

 The new Saudi King Salman is bringing his own new-look government into play, with a more muscular foreign policy buttressed by force. Saudis share a long border with Yemen. Although Pakistan won rebukes for not joining in the war against Yemen, Riyadh is still looking towards Pakistan for the ultimate deterrent, nuclear arms should it come to a catastrophic crisis moment. Saudis have helped Pakistan in many ways in exchange for its soldiers serving in the kingdom and in being hospitable to the Wahhabi sect.

For the United States, it is a far cry from its desire to take leave of its Middle East problems to pivot to Asia to pay greater attention to a rising China. Thanks to the shale revolution, the US is much less dependent on Middle East oil, and apart from protecting Israel's interests in a hostile world, the scale of its interests has decreased.

The problem is that given the volatile nature of the Middle East's turmoil, there is no easy exit. Thanks to the powerful Jewish lobby in America, a succession of US administrations have bowed to Israel's wishes, despite the suicidal course the Netanyahu government is following in permanently colonising Palestinians in the 21st century.

Second, with the advent of the IS in seeking to conquer and rule over vast stretches of territory in Syria and Iraq, Washington feels it cannot have the heart of the Arab world run by a terrorist set-up. One question before the US and the world is the outcome of the negotiations with Iran. The fear of the Arab kingdoms clubbed under the Gulf Cooperation Council is that an Iran free from Western sanctions will have greater scope to spread its influence in the region by linking up the Shia entities and countries. Yet realistically Tehran cannot be kept under permanent sanctions to keep its influence at bay.

The end of the long-running civil war in Syria would be one pointer to the shape of things to come. If whispers are to be believed, some kind of accommodation between the Assad regime and the West led by the US could initiate an interim agreement, with the anti-IS forces then better able to fight the extremists. Second, if Turkey, a major player, succeeds in completing the peace process with its large Kurdish minority, it could mean accession of strength to the anti-extremist forces.

These are, for the present, in the realm of speculation. What is certain is that bloodletting will continue for some time to come. The scale and nature of devastation, the killings, dislocation and misery developments in the region have caused are almost beyond belief. Boatloads of miserable refugees trying to make it to Europe are one dimension of the problem. The other is the Herculean task of remaking lives and cities once fighting stops.