A year without Amma

Santosh Kumar 

Freelance writer

Now that the ‘two leaves’ symbol and the original party name are with them, the big question doing the rounds in Tamil Nadu today is whether Chief Minister E Palaniswami (EPS) and his "deputy" O Panneerselvam (OPS) can pull off a victory in RK Nagar, the erstwhile constituency of their beloved Amma, J Jayalalithaa, whose untimely death had orphaned the All-India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam. Will the chest-thumping of one of OPS' ministers, days before the Election Commission's decision, that as long as "Prime Minister Narendra Modi is with us, nobody can shake our party...destroy AIADMK" turn out to be the undoing of the party itself? It seems the odds are heavily in favour of such a possibility.

This is because Jayalalithaa’s heir apparent VK Sasikala and her nephew TTV Dinakaran are no pushovers and EPS-OPS are in no way the true inheritors of Amma’s legacy. With the first death anniversary of the leader just a few days away, all that the people of Tamil Nadu have witnessed in one year was open squabbling among the leaders for power and glory and no concern for the people's well-being which was the leitmotif of Jayalalithaa’s regime, however much a veneer it was. OPS, who unabashedly showed his subservience to Sasikala in the days following the late chief minister's death, turned a rebel overnight when he knew that power was slipping from his hands. EPS, the next chosen one, deserted 'Chinnamma' the moment the highest court of the country sent her to jail for crimes committed partly for herself and partly for Amma. Sasikala can still create some sympathy among voters, playing the martyr role. EPS-OPS joining hands to take on Sasikala and Dinakaran is seen more as an act of convenience. The outcome in RK Nagar will decide how long they stick together. 

This will be music to the ears of MK Stalin and his DMK. The party is putting up a local which will be to its advantage. The RK Nagar by-election earlier slated for April 12 was annulled following allegations of large-scale laundering of money. Whatever be the precautions, things are not going to be different this time either. Dinakaran has announced his candidature, while at the same time deciding to move the Supreme Court against the EC and seek a floor test in the Assembly. Numbers are clearly against him. Tamil Nadu's 111 MLAs, 42 MPs and Puducherry's four MLAs had pledged support to the EPS-OPS combine in front of the EC. There were 20 MLAs and six MPs with Dinakaran.  But EPS’ dairy minister Rajendra Balaji, by his statement, has done enough damage to the veracity of the EC decision. Dinakaran is bound to make maximum use of it. “The Chief Election Commissioner is a former chief secretary of Gujarat. So despite the independent nature of the body, the EC cannot act impartially. The EC is essentially working for the central government,” Dinakaran had said while announcing his decision to appeal in the Supreme Court.

Nobody knows Modi or his party president Amit Shah think about the ground realities in Tamil Nadu. But deep downamong the ordinary people of the state, there is an inherent dislike about the politics the two practice. Unlike his popularity in the north, Modi is just another prime minister of the country in these parts of the world. They are suspicious about anything that they think is anti-Dravidian. So, if the AIADMK under the current dispensation proclaims that the party will remain safe as long as it has the support of Prime Minister Modi, it is committing political hara-kiri. Imagine a BJP leader campaigning for the AIADMK candidate in RK Nagar. It will be considered the biggest insult to Amma's legacy. So far, the BJP has not revealed whether the party will contest on its own or support the AIADMK. The Congress and Thol Thirumavalan's Vaduthalai Chiruthaigal Katchi have decided to support the DMK.

A somewhat similar scenario had happened in 1988 following founder MG Ramachandran's death. That time too two groups emerged, one led by MGR's widow Janaki and the other led by the then secretary in charge of publicity Jayalalithaa. In the 1989 Assembly elections, the Jayalalithaa group contested on the symbol of "rooster" and won 27 seats while Janaki contesting on symbol of "two doves" won just one seat. The rest is history.  

But in this one year without Amma, Stalin has played his cards very well. He has proved everybody wrong by acting as a politician above petty gains and emerging as a senior statesman from the shadows of his towering, now ailing, father M Karunanidhi.  This will turn out to be an asset for him, come December 21 when RK Nagar votes without Amma.