Alberta puts NDP on slippery turf

Iqbal Sidhu

Alberta is a curious place in more ways than one. While one half of it is flat as a pancake, the other half is mountainous. While the month of January has the coldest days of the year, it also has some of the most pleasant days as well because of the warm north wind called the Chinook.

Alberta is also special in that it is arguably the most conservative province in the country, while bordering, arguably, the most progressive province of British Columbia (BC). Alberta is a place of political stability, so much so that in the past 110 years, the sitting governments have only been defeated four times. Yes, four times. That means, over the past century, the province has only seen five governments.

The most recent change in government occurred in 2015 when the Rachel Notley-led New Democratic Party (NDP) surprised the whole nation by forming a government. However, ever since Notley — daughter of former NDP leader Grant Notley — got elected, the path has been broken, at best, meandering.

Alberta has tremendous oil wealth; one can find oil wells even on the sides of the trans-Canada highway on the way to Calgary. When the oil prices plummeted in 2014, the Albertan economy came to a halt. People were being laid off and the outgoing conservative government was accused of putting all its eggs in one ‘oily’ basket. It is in this scenario that the NDP took over. It got elected on the promise of a new, diverse economic plan, which would bring sustainable, high-paying jobs and would not be vulnerable to the volatile prices of the crude oil market. However, things never took off. Oil prices have only recently rebounded, giving the government some breathing room. But except that, the government has not been able to make good of its promise of a better economy.

The previous government, run by the Progressive Conservative Party of Alberta, has since merged with Alberta Party. The king of this merger was Jason Kenney, a former cabinet minister from Stephen Harper’s government. Many in India know him from his time as the immigration minister of Canada. This new party, called the United Conservative Party, appears to be sounding the end of the NDP. It is ahead in every opinion poll conducted by a healthy 8-10 points.

Alberta goes to the polls next year. And it seems that the short-lived reign of the NDP will be gone. This would be Jagmeet’s most significant failure as the federal leader of the NDP, should it happen.

Unlike in India, provincial parties in Canada do not have much to do with federal parties. Still, the federal leader is responsible for leading the way, for intervening when necessary (purely in a commentating capacity) and resolving disputes within the party units of two provinces. Jagmeet has not shone in this segment.

Alberta and BC share a mountainous border and that is about all that they share, except for the fact that NDP is currently in government in both these provinces. This has not stopped them from squabbling over an oil pipeline that the Alberta NDP wants to build all the way to the Pacific Ocean, but the government in BC would not let pass through its territory. Jagmeet could have intervened, but did not. The Liberal government finally decided to buy the pipeline for billions of dollars, a very unpopular decision.

If Alberta is lost, Jagmeet will have a tough road ahead to the federal elections due in the fall of 2019 . He will have to explain why he should continue leading the party. The voices of rebellion will also echo a lot more, and he might have to go the way of his predecessor, who was lawyer, then a prime ministerial hopeful and is now a professor. Sounds familiar?