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Sushil Manav in Chandigarh
THe likelihood of a formal split in the Indian National Lok Dal (INLD) following the recent showdown between Ajay Singh Chautala and Abhay Singh Chautala, the two sons of party patriarch Om Prakash Chautala, has given rise to many speculations in Haryana politics ahead of the elections in 2019.
The family feud in the 22-year-old party, which has the maximum number of MLAs in the state Assembly, after the ruling BJP, has come at a time when parliamentary elections are less than six months away and elections for the state Assembly are also to be held in less than a year.
A look at the INLD’s performance in elections in the past shows that though the number of seats won by the party has been inconsistent, the party’s vote share has always been between 20 per cent and 30 per cent in the parliamentary as well as Assembly elections ever since the inception of the party in 1996. The INLD’s best performance came in the parliamentary elections in 1999 and Assembly poll in 2000.
The party, in alliance with the BJP, won five parliamentary seats out of 10 with the rest of five going to its alliance partner by polling 29 per cent votes in the state and almost 60 per cent in the five seats it contested in the 1999 parliamentary elections.
In the 2000 Assembly elections, the party contested 62 of the state’s 90 seats, and won 47 by polling almost 29.61 per cent of the total votes. Its alliance partner BJP contested 28 seats and won six seats.
In the next Assembly elections held in 2005, the INLD was reduced to a mere nine seats in the 90-member state Assembly. This was because of a strong anti-incumbency factor against its government. However, the party’s vote share was reduced only marginally to 26.77 per cent from 29.61 per cent in 2000. Surprisingly, in 2009, the INLD’s vote share dipped further to 25.79 per cent in the 2009 Assembly elections, but the party showed marked revival by winning 31 seats.
But in the Assembly elections held in 2014, the party tally again came down to 19 seats with its alliance partner Shiromani Akali Dal (Badal) winning one. The party’s vote share dipped further to 24.11 per cent this time.
In the Lok Sabha elections, the party could not open its account in 2005 and 2009. It, however, managed to bag two seats in 2014.
Political observers believe that in case of a split, the vote share of the INLD will not only divide between the two breakaway groups but can also shift towards other political parties because of disillusionment among the supporters.
“The party has been out of power for the past 13 years. Many committed supporters of the party, who have been with it since its inception, have been waiting for the 2019 Assembly elections with high hopes as they believed that the Jat-Scheduled Caste combine with an alliance between the INLD and the BSP could have helped the party romp home victorious. But a split will dash their hopes and can force them do a rethinking on continuing their support the party,” says an old INLD supporter.
He adds that after all, supporters do not join a political party for social cause alone. They invest a lot of time and money with the hope that the party would come to power some day and they would benefit from the government.
Political observers believe that though caste has always been a key factor in elections in Haryana, division of votes on the lines of caste could be sharper this time, as this will be the first election after Jat quota violence in February 2016 when shops and business establishments of non-Jats were set on fire in several towns of the state.
“The INLD is a major political party which commands a good share in Jat votes. Any political party that hopes to get a major share of Jat votes will have to generate confidence among its voters that it can come to power. Otherwise, there are chances that the voters might get drifted to other alternatives. This is true not only for the INLD, but also for leaders of other political parties who hope to get a good share of Jat votes,” maintain political observers.
Needless to say, the Congress as well as the BJP have been watching the developments in the INLD with interest. Former Chief Minister Bhupinder Singh Hooda refuses to comment on the possibility of a split in the INLD saying that it is the internal matter of the Chautala clan. However, he doesn’t hesitate to take a dig when he says that “The real face of the INLD has been exposed. This shows they were shedding crocodile tears for farmers, because the real fight was for power.”
Chief Minister Manohar Lal Khattar also was quoted as saying that several functionaries of the INLD, including current and former MLAs, were in touch with the BJP.
INLD seats in Vidhan Sabha
2000 47
2005 09
2009 31
2014 19
Lok Sabha
1999 5
2004 0
2009 0
2014 2
Vote share in Vidhan Sabha
2000 29.61 %
2005 26.77 %
2009 25.79 %
2014 24.11 %
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