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Pratibha Chauhan
The ruling BJP has scripted history in Himachal, as it is for the first time that any party has polled a whopping 70 per cent of votes, routing the Congress with a humiliating defeat. The results of the Lok Sabha elections for the four seats proved that it was yet again a saffron wave that swept the hills of Himachal as the BJP retained its control over all four seats, which it had won for the first time ever in 2014 parliamentary poll. The party, much to its own surprise, won by huge margins, which was not anticipated by its leadership.
The hopes of Congress, which was expecting to wrest back its bastion of Shimla, were dashed with it losing all four seats. The fact that Congress could manage a lead over BJP even in one of the 68 Assembly segments made the defeat even more humiliating. Even three sitting MLAs — Pawan Kajal, Dhani Ram Shandil and Ram Lal Thakur, who were party candidates from Kangra, Shimla and Hamirpur parliamentary seats, failed to secure a lead in their own home segments, showed how people supported the BJP in a big way.
As is the case, the focus in the Lok Sabha elections was clearly on nationalism, with all other issues such as unemployment, agrarian distress, demonetisation and GST taking a backseat. The BJP rode high on the charisma of PM Narendra Modi and the debate on Pulwama, Uri and surgical strikes seems to have swayed voters in its favour. The fact that Himachal has close to 3 lakh serving and retired soldiers only added to the victory margins of the BJP candidates.
State-specific issues such as poor road infrastructure, lack of proper air and rail connectivity, slow progress on the construction of 79 national highways, setting up of the cement plant in Chamba, enhancing the import duty on apple and grant of ST status to the residents of Trans Giri area of Sirmaur echoed in the election din, but did not prove to be a deciding factor. What is worrisome for the Congress is that its traditional strongholds of Rohru, Rampur, Kinnaur and Lahaul Spiti also crumbled in the Modi onslaught. The party could not put up a respectable fight in Shimla. Suresh Kashyap of the BJP won by 3.27 lakh defeating Dhani Ram Shandil. In 2014, BJP’s Virender Kashyap had won the seat by a margin of 84,187 votes.
The humiliating defeat of Ashray Sharma, Sukh Ram’s grandson, who was Congress candidate from Mandi, is a reflection on the complete rejection of politics of opportunism. The family now faces an uncertain future. In Hamirpur, three-time MP Anurag Thakur marched to Parliament for the fourth consecutive innings with élan.
SHIMLA
Suresh Kashyap (BJP)
Margin: 3.27 lakh
Runner-up: DR Shandil (Cong)
The Congress bastion of Shimla, comprising the three districts of Shimla, Solan and Sirmaur, chose to give the BJP a formidable lead in all 17 Assembly segments. These districts of the state have been traditional pocket boroughs of the Congress and the party was hoping to win back the support of the people, which it lost in 2014. Congress candidate Col Dhani Ram Shandil (retd) (78) failed to impress voters in sharp contrast to the BJP nominee Suresh Kashyap (45), though both are sitting MLAs. Moreover, the BJP had a very well-galvanised party cadre, who had penetrated deep into the villages with direct contact with voters. Congress on the other hand was no match to the BJP’s campaign. However, the results showed that voters got swayed by Modi factor. Much to its disbelief, Congress trailed with sizeable margins in its bastions of Rampur, Rohru, Renuka, Shillai. Even the persona of six-time CM Virbhadra Singh failed to stall the Modi wave. With the BJP candidate Suresh Kashyap hailing from Pachaad in Sirmaur, the BJP got massive lead in the district. He got a massive and the highest lead of 39,970 in Nalagarh.
MANDI
Ram Swaroop (BJP)
Margin: 4.05 lakh
Runner-up: Ashray Sharma (Cong)
BJP’s imposing victory from the prestigious Mandi Lok Sabha seat was almost certain with this being the home turf of CM Jai Ram Thakur. The fact that the post of CM has for the first time gone to a leader from Mandi district, has made people proud.
In fact, Sukh Ram, the tallest leader from Mandi so far, despite coming very close to becoming the CM in 1993, was not able to fulfil this long cherished dream of his. The people of Mandi, Kullu and tribal districts of Kinnaur and Lahaul Spiti credit “Pandit ji”, as he is popularly known, of undertaking a lot of development, but when it came to making a choice between him and sitting CM, the electorate chose the latter. The defeat of Ashray by 4.05 lakh votes, however, have sent a signal loud and clear that Sukh Ram and his family has lost their relevance. Political analysts attribute the defeat of Ashray to the disdain people have for those who indulge in political opportunism by shifting loyalties. With the fight in Mandi clearly being between Sukh Ram and Jai Ram Thakur, the sitting MP and BJP candidate Ram Swaroop just sailed through on CM’s shoulders despite his own stint being very lackluster. In the whole process, the CM has gained in stature.
HAMIRPUR
Anurag Thakur (BJP)
Margin: 3.87 lakh
Runner-up: Ram Lal Thakur (Cong)
The three-time sitting MP Anurag Thakur ensured his march to the parliament by fashioning a fourth consecutive win in style. Proving all speculation and analysis wrong, he increased his victory margin from the 2014 elections, silencing his detractors, who often accuse him of having complete “disconnect” with his electorate. The victory only reiterated the fact that voters still had faith in him. The announcement of BJP national chief Amit Shah — that Thakur would be given a bigger responsibility if he wins, only helped enhance his winning prospects. Now, with the BJP all set to form the next government, he could be inducted as a minister. With Congress leaders like CLP leader Mukesh Agnihotri and former state president Sukhwinder Sukhu shying away from contesting, Naina Devi MLA Ram Lal Thakur was pushed into contesting. Congress was plagued by bickering and factionalism. The humiliating defeat of former CM PK Dhumal from Sujanpur in the 2017 Assembly poll probably evoked some sympathy for his son Anurag. However, it was Modi’s charisma, which worked wonders.
KANGRA
Kishan Kapoor(BJP)
Margin: 4.77 lakh
Runner-up: Pawan Kajal (Cong)
Despite a tall political personality like Shanta Kumar opting out of electoral politics, the BJP managed not just to win Kangra, but by a much bigger margin of 4.77 lakh. Undoubtedly, Kangra has been the BJP’s pocket borough but the victory margin here became huge with Modi wave sweeping the state. Pawan Kajal, a sitting MLA, was pushed into the contest at a much later stage. Being a two-time MLA, he could not pose a challenge to Kishan Kapoor. Despite being from the OBC community, which constitutes a sizeable chunk of the electorate, he failed encash this factor. The senior Congress leaders from Kangra worked half-heartedly for his victory and he was practically left to fend for himself. Chamba gave a mammoth lead to the BJP and Kangra proved once again that it was BJP’s citadel as Kishan Kapoor won with the highest margin of 4.77 lakh. BJP had done exceedingly well even in the 2017 Assembly elections by winning 10 of the 15 seats in Kangra.
POLLING TRENDS
The all-time high polling percentage of 72.25 per cent in Himachal in the poll this time proved the electorates’ interest in the poll narrative. The 7.80 per cent higher voter turnout as compared to 64.45 percent in 2014 Lok Sabha elections was a result of efforts by various agencies, including the Election department to cast their vote. What was even more overwhelming was the fact that a large number of women turned out to exercise their right to franchise. In Kangra, Hamirpur and Mandi they outnumbered men while exercising their right to vote. The fact that BJP got such unprecedented victory also reflects women’s support for the BJP’s schemes such as Ujjawala Yojana, where LPG connection for every home, Rs 2,000 to Rs 4,000 money being deposited in people’s accounts and healthcare schemes impressed voters.
Those who made it
Anurag Thakur and PK Dhumal: Anurag registered his fourth consecutive win despite being labelled as arrogant and disconnected with people. His father and two-time CM PK Dhumal, after having being humbled in the 2017 Assembly poll, refused to take any chance and worked overtime to ensure his son’s victory. Anurag is now being tipped for a larger role in the UPA regime in Delhi.
CM Jai Ram Thakur: The victory will consolidate the first-time CM, who is often referred to as an accidental CM due to Dhumal’s defeat, who had been declared as the CM face before the 2017 poll. Thakur by leading BJP to a historical victory has clearly proved that he is a popular CM, who is gradually making way into the hearts of people with his unassuming, humble and clean image.
...and Those who couldn’t
Sukh Ram/Anil Sharma: With his grandson losing the Mandi Lok Sabha seat, it is more than evident that people have shunned the politics of opportunism and dynastic politics by the Sukh Ram clan. The political innings of the veteran leader, already 93, is over, but it is his son Anil, who has paid the price for his own son’s electoral debut with his ministry and now, could lose his MLA-ship in the coming days.
Virbhadra Singh: Despite being the star campaigner of the Congress, the six-time CM Virbhadra not only failed to woo voters, but the BJP got a lead of 29,454 from his own Assembly segment of Arki in Solan, indicating his eroding popularity. Congress also trailed by over 15,000 in Shimla (rural), a seat represented by his son Vikramaditya Singh in the Vidhan Sabha.
Kuldeep Rathore: State Congress President: Being in the saddle for only a month before elections were announced, Rathore did not get enough time to prepare the party for the poll. Having no experience of electoral politics proved a major impediment. Even though it was Modi wave which wiped off the Congress, he would be held accountable for the poor campaign, which failed to pick up and winnability to manage funds and resources.
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