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Round three at UNGA

As Pakistan’s PM Imran Khan prepares to leave for New York to place Pakistan’s Kashmir case before the United Nations General Assembly (UNGA) on September 27, the same day as PM Modi will address the Assembly, he would be a disappointed man.

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Vivek Katju
Ex-secretary, Ministry of external affairs

As Pakistan’s PM Imran Khan prepares to leave for New York to place Pakistan’s Kashmir case before the United Nations General Assembly (UNGA) on September 27, the same day as PM Modi will address the Assembly, he would be a disappointed man. He would be conscious that for all the sound and fury, his country’s campaign against the August 5 constitutional changes in J&K, and the restrictions on normal life that followed, particularly in the Kashmir valley, has not acquired international traction. Except for the all-weather friend, China, and a few other countries, no country, including those belonging to the Islamic ummah, has responded in any meaningful manner to Pakistan’s call to take India to task. 

Imran has led the charge against India. The Pakistan army, which decides the country’s India policy, has allowed him and foreign minister Shah Mahmood Qureshi to be the public face of its anti-India diplomacy. Though there are reports of increased infiltration of Pakistan-based terrorists into Kashmir, the Pakistan army has ensured that terrorist groups have refrained from undertaking any attacks against the constitutional changes, and has greatly toned down the vitriolic rhetoric against India.

While it is difficult to assess for how long the Pakistan army will hold its hand from engineering terror attacks, the present attempt is to convey the message that the Kashmiris are engaged in a struggle for freedom, which India has successfully projected till now as terrorism. This was, once again, borne out by what Imran told the media in Peshawar on September 18, ‘Anyone from Pakistan wanting to fight in Kashmir or go for jihad in Kashmir would do the greatest injustice to the Kashmiris.’ This is because it would, he went on to add, ‘give them the pretext to blame Pakistan for cross-border terrorism and infiltrating terrorists.’

He is also seeking to underline that while any act of mistreatment of minorities in Pakistan is an aberration, the BJP’s ideology is based on Hindu supremacy and the subjugation of India’s minorities. Pakistan has linked the constitutional changes in J&K to this thinking. The UNHRC is the best forum to push this narrative, but Pakistan has failed there. The fact that it was unable to get enough countries to support its desire for a discussion, leave alone a resolution, on the human rights situation in Kashmir, shows that its narrative is simply being ignored. Also, India has managed a successful diplomatic effort to show reasons for the steps taken, including the curtailment of communications. The fact that the security forces ensured that there has not been any large-scale violence or damage to life and property has obviously been reassuring to even those countries that have been uneasy at the disruption in people’s lives.

Pakistan’s reverse in the UNHRC has come after the United Nations Security Council clearly indicated that it would not get involved in the Kashmir issue. The informal consultations revealed that the overwhelming majority wanted India and Pakistan to resolve Kashmir bilaterally. Besides, Pakistan’s message that India’s action had endangered international peace and security found virtually no support. Having failed in the UNHRC and the UNSC, Imran would try to garner support at the UNGA. He will have to factor in the fact that current international concerns are focused on the situation in West Asia, especially after the drone attacks on Saudi Arabia oil facilities; the US-China trade ‘war’ in the context of the re-balancing of the international order; and environmental concerns. Amid these issues, the international community has little time for the J&K situation, notwithstanding Pakistan’s dire predictions. Besides, India’s position in the UNGA is strong.

This is how the diplomatic landscape has shaped as Modi and Khan reach the US. Apart from their participation in the UNGA events and meetings on its sidelines, both leaders are due to meet President Donald Trump. Indeed, according to present indications, Modi will have two meetings with him. The first will be at the ‘Howdy Modi’ rally in Houston on September 22. Trump’s participation in the spectacle is novel and unprecedented. Perhaps no other US President has taken part in such an event with a visiting foreign leader. Trump will do so, obviously, with an eye on Indian-origin US voters and donors for his re-election bid next year, but that will not obscure the strong diplomatic signal it will send globally of US desire to strengthen bilateral ties, as the re-balancing of international system proceeds because of China’s rise.

It will also be a sign that the Trump administration has taken the changes in J&K in its stride, though it may make noises on the human rights situation there. If India can handle this, it can handle any criticism in the US Congress. What India may also have to once again face is Trump’s offer of mediation in J&K. As in the past, India will reiterate that third party mediation is not acceptable to it, howsoever well-meaning it may be.

Modi will also have to brace himself for a degree of hostility in the liberal circles in the West, especially in the liberal media. As it is, it has been critical of the changes in J&K and Modi’s presence in New York will provide it an occasion to put the focus on the situation there once again. However, this is unlikely to faze Indian diplomats.

One last word: it is inexplicable why India asked for overflight permission from Pakistan for Modi’s flight, especially when it had gravely insulted it by denying permission to the President to overfly its airspace. The government’s explanations in this regard fall woefully short.

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