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Pakistan’s third successive democratic transition should ideally suggest that civilians and the military have achieved a consensus on national security and foreign policy. But a closer look reveals that the last two democratic arrangements met their Waterloo after crossing swords with the security agencies. Imran Khan’s easy relationship with the army suggests that the current government may not spend most of its tenure anxiously looking over its shoulder. India is likely to rank as the fourth priority for Imran Khan after domestic consolidation and clean up, Afghanistan and ties with China-US-Russia. India needs to accept its place lower down on Islamabad’s pecking order as a blessing.
Imran Khan has expressed a desire for reopening dialogue with India. But with the Modi government at the fag end of its tenure, any opening will get caught in the groove of whether Kashmir or terrorism should be the prime topic of discussion. The loser in this endless wait will be Punjab that had its natural trade routes to the west blocked after the 1965 war. The Modi government has initiated a massive infrastructure revamp along the coasts but Punjab’s wait for outlets continues.
Punjab Cabinet minister Navjot Sidhu’s presence as Pakistan PM Imran Khan’s sole invitee from India points to the potential of reviving talks about re-engaging the two Punjabs. Last time this arrangement was sought to be consecrated via the Badal-Shahbaz Sharif joint statement. There need not be any political opposition to taking the dust off the initiative since at that time the Congress was in power at the Centre and the BJP a coalition partner in Punjab. For both Punjabs, the usefulness of trade revival needs hardly to be stated. But much of the agenda can only be implemented with the help of the Central governments. Both Islamabad and New Delhi need to take a hard look at such low-risk solutions that may over time become a stepping stone for substantial dialogue between the two nations.