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Mukesh Ranjan in New Delhi
Up for re-election or rejection in February next year, Arvind Kejriwal can draw solace from the depleting appeal of BJP’s principal campaign thrust on nationalism during the recent elections in Haryana and Maharashtra. That means the campaign for the Delhi Assembly elections would largely revolve around local issues.
Much has changed in the theatre of Delhi politics during the past six years. After his stellar electoral debut in 2013, activist-turned-politician Kejriwal has stayed on a rising trajectory — the setbacks during the 2019 Lok Sabha elections or the crumbling of Aam Aadmi Party’s pan-India aspirations notwithstanding.
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Political observers note that Delhi has a distinct sense of entitlement while making electoral choices. Three-term Congress Chief Minister Sheila Dikshit had evolved a formidable craft of entitlement-based politics with her enviable Bhagidari programme in which she enlisted Resident Welfare Associations (RWAs) in the implementation of government schemes. In the course of 15 years of her rule in the city-state, the sense of entitlement evolved into government subsidising electricity and water.
Yet, Dikshit arguably stays in the popular memory for transforming Delhi’s infrastructure, while nursing her constituency with modest doles. Kejriwal appears to have perfected the political script of his predecessor with aggressive subsidy programmes on electricity and water. Even within the BJP — the main Opposition, with the triangular electoral arena seemingly evolving into bipolar politics after the demise of Congress stalwart Sheila Dikshit — there is a cautious approach to stay away from attacking AAP on populist measures.
The local dynamics
Half of the population of Delhi is considered to be spread over unauthorised colonies, slums and ‘lal dora’ villages. After the demise of BJP’s Jat face Sahib Singh Verma, AAP is seen to have usurped the Congress’ catchment area of such socio-geographical expanse.
The AAP campaign for 2020 is largely focused on the Kejriwal government’s stated achievements in the education and health sectors. Infrastructure upgradation in schools, along with creative experimentation in re-training of teachers, has been much spoken about, including parent-teacher meetings. ‘Mohalla clinics’, too, have been the talking point. Keeping an eye on women voters, the AAP government recently unveiled free bus ride for them, while proposing a similar dole in Metro.
However, the onset of winter left millions of Delhiites gasping for breath. Kejriwal has been blamed for excessive delay in giving approval to phase four of the Metro expansion plan. Public transport has not been seen keeping pace with the ever-increasing demands of the commuters. Also, there has been only an extension, and no decrease, of the long traffic snarls, accounting for a substantial share in carbon footprint.
Despite Delhi being the national capital, the city has not seen serious government intervention to deal with the ever-increasing pile of garbage. Experts put the onus at the doors of the Kejriwal government as only 10 per cent of the solid waste being generated is getting treated, with the rest either dumped or simply burnt.
Kejriwal also resorted to significantly enhance the minimum wages for skilled, unskilled and semi-skilled workers despite protests by business establishments. This also has been seen as a populist measure that proved to be counter-productive, since a large number of business firms have shifted base to nearby Noida and Gurugram. With the substantial chunk of electorate being youth, the spectre of unemployment may target the AAP or the BJP.
AAP-BJP straight contest on cards?
The AAP and the BJP are locked in almost a direct duel, with the Congress getting marginalised as a fringe player. The BJP has sought to turn the tables on AAP while coming up with a plan to grant ownership rights to inhabitants of unauthorised colonies, accounting for over 40 per cent of Delhi’s population.
Unlike 2015, the AAP has now metamorphosed into a political entity largely consisting of leadership with express loyalty to Kejriwal. The likes of Kumar Vishwas, Yogendra Yadav, Prashant Bhushan and Ashutosh, who had given an air of alternative politics, have since been pushed out. Their exit has incidentally robbed the romantic image of the party of being the anti-thesis of the mainstream political outfits.
Kejriwal, however, has sought to steer the party out of the initial aggression by lowering the din against the Centre, particularly Prime Minister Narendra Modi. That was demonstrated by AAP by supporting the Centre’s move to reorganise the erstwhile state of Jammu and Kashmir into two Union Territories. Incidentally, Kejriwal’s campaign theme during the recent Lok Sabha elections mostly revolved around full statehood for Delhi.
However, despite having come from an anti-corruption stable, the AAP government has not been seen creating much noise around graft. Even while the party accuses the BJP-ruled Municipal Corporations of rampant corruption, the city government has not taken the issue to the logical conclusion despite having administrative control over the fund flow.
Veering away from the core anti-corruption plank, Kejriwal opted for a confrontationist stance against the office of Lt-Governor and Delhi Police, which function directly under the Centre. Many of his opponents believe that the confrontationist approach was a ploy to keep his rebel image against the establishment afloat and look attractive among the common voters.
The BJP has been out of power in Delhi since 1998, and the AAP may count this lack of being in power in the city as an asset. But then, there’s always Narendra Modi.
Fascination with CM face
Delhi has been known to opt for CM faces while making electoral choices. The image of Sheila Dikshit had in the past proved to be a tall order for the BJP, having come a cropper with the choice of Vijay Kumar Malhotra in 2008. Harsh Vardhan in 2013 and Kiran Bedi in 2015 could not capture the popular imagination. Arvind Kejriwal thus has a headstart. The BJP has not yet been able to come up with coherent counter-strategy against the politics of populism of AAP. Even while the BJP bagged over 50 per cent of vote share in the recent Lok Sabha elections, the party’s tally in Assembly polls averaged 34 per cent. Though the BJP is banking on Manoj Tiwari to dent the Purvanchali (eastern UP and Bihar) vote base, AAP claims to have more acceptance among the electorate on the basis of freebies.
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