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Pak elections and the Establishment

Pakistan goes to the polls on July 25.

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RK Kaushik
Secretary, Government of Punjab

Pakistan goes to the polls on July 25. At the national level, there are three main parties — the PML(N) (Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz), PPP (Pakistan People's Party) and PTI (Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf) — besides various small groupings. Elections are being held for 270 National Assembly seats out of the 272 general seats (elections to two seats have been postponed). The poll for the remaining 70 reserved seats —10 for minorities and 60 for women in the 342-member National Assembly is held later indirectly. The 272 general seats are split among the four provinces of Punjab (141), Sindh (61), Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (39), Balochistan (16) and the two territories of FATA (12) and Islamabad Capital Territory (3). The elections are being supervised, nay conducted, by the powerful Establishment (Pakistan Army and the ISI). Cricketer-turned-politician Imran Khan has the full support of the Establishment. 

A change of track from idealism to expediency helped Imran come closer to his goal and cultivate the Establishment. The times are also in his favour, with the decapitation of the main opponent, ie the PML(N). 

It is the central and northern parts of Punjab that will determine the country's future as 95 National Assembly seats are concentrated in the region that largely constitutes urban constituencies, unlike the feudal-dominated south. The rules of the game are different in the heartland. Corruption by a leader or court decisions have little influence on electoral support. There is no indication of the PML(N) losing ground in its bastion of Punjab despite some high-profile defections and alleged meddling by the Establishment, persuading candidates to switch sides. There is an increase sympathy for the PML(N) after the imprisonment of Sharif and his daughter Maryam and there is no evidence of any major cracks in the party's popular support base either, except in south Punjab. Though the PTI, with the Establishment's support, does seem to have made some inroads into the PML(N) powerbase. 

The region between Multan and Rahim Yar Khan has 46 National Assembly seats spread over 11 districts. The PTI has a reasonably good presence there, along with the PPP which has strong candidates in Multan and Rahim Yar Khan. In Sindh, there is the Grand Democratic Alliance (GDA) formed by the Establishment, which is a combine of anti-PPP groups and is likely to get some seats, especially from interior Sindh. The PTI hopes to have some electoral presence in the province where the PPP appears unassailable. The disintegration of the MQM (Mohajir Quami Movement) that dominated the politics of urban Sindh for almost three decades has provided an opportunity for the PTI to grab a few seats from Karachi.

Electoral politics in Balochistan is different. The emergence of the Establishment-backed Balochistan Awami Party following the Senate elections has brought a new element. The PTI seems to have established some understanding with this party.

In Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, the PTI  would surely get a majority because of the splendid work done by it in the fields of education, health, police and revenue reforms.

Militant groups like the Milli Muslim League, Threek-e-Labaik, Ahl-e-Sunnat Wal Jamaat and Muttahida Majlis-e-Amal are also in the fray. Most of these actors are seen as spoilers, ie they can do some damage to mainstream parties and change the results in a few constituencies. The new far-right actors have diminished the bargaining prospects of smaller religious parties like the Jamiat Ulema-i-Islam (Samiul Haq faction) and Jamiat Ulema-i-Pakistan.

The Establishment's support to the PTI and some smaller groups has placed the other mainstream parties in a suspicious mode about the role of the security establishment in forming and ousting civilian dispensations. Sharif, three-time PM, who is serving a 10-year jail term for corruption, is saying it openly. The PPP and other parties may not be that forthcoming, but they have the same concern. Because of Pakistan's harlequin history and repeated military coups, neither do politicians trust the generals nor do the men in uniform have a favourable view of the elected leaders. This chronic misgiving is one of the many reasons that democracy has never taken roots and none of the elected prime ministers ever completed his five-year term. 

Today, Imran Khan may be in the good books of the powers-that-be (Establishment), but tomorrow he may be facing the same fate as his predecessors. Some of his detractors believe that if Imran forms the government, he may not be able to survive even for two years as he is vaultingly ambitious and may venture to interfere in no-go areas (like defence budget, defence, nuclear and foreign policy, especially in relation to India, China, Iran, Afghanistan, West Asia, Israel, the USA etc). Democracy needs elections and proper elections need a level playing field. Else, public confidence in political institutions and processes is undermined, and the legitimacy of those elected is weakened or lost altogether. A large cross-section of Pakistanis is not seeing the July 25 elections as free and fair. The banning of Nawaz Sharif from holding political office raises doubts in many ways.

Weird and suspicious events have leftpeople flummoxed. There are 49 independent candidates with Jeep as the election symbol, indicating that they have the Establishment’s support. They include Chaudhry Nisar Ali Khan, former Interior Minister, who is close to the Establishment. 

The prognostication is that there may be a hung National Assembly. The PTI may get 80 to 85 seats, the PML (N) 70 to 75 seats and the PPP around 35 seats. The Independents may get around 35 and other smaller parties may dangle in the rest.

Punjab may also have a hung assembly. The PPP may scrape through in Sindh, the PTI in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and the Baluchistan Awami Party along with a group of smaller parties in Baluchistan. But then, as an Islamabad High Court Judge, Justice Shaukat Siddiqui, said, the judiciary is not independent and both the media and judiciary are controlled by the Army and ISI (Inter Services Intelligence). The election process itself and the future thereafter seem precarious. However, the Establishment would call the shots and search for obsequious PM and CMs.

The 272 general seats of national assembly

Islamabad Capital Territory 3

Khyber Pakhtunkhwa 39

FATA 12

Punjab 141

Sindh 61

Balochistan 16

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