On the chessboard of diplomacy

Sandeep Dikshit in New Delhi

Sandeep Dikshit  in New Delhi

After giving Pakistan a befitting reply in Balakot for the Pulwama attack, India is actively making diplomatic overtures to pressurise Pakistan to abandon its jihad dependence. Here are some viable options: 

A Cut a deal with China for banning Azhar at UNSC: India can offer China its support in its aspiration to head global bodies in order to exhibit its status as a global power. In return, China can agree not to use its veto when the three permanent members of the UN Security Council (UNSC) bring a resolution seeking to name Masood Azhar as an international terrorist.

What will banning achieve: It will slightly damage Masood Azhar because he does not have extensive sources of revenue like the ISIS, Al Qaeda and the Taliban. However, a more permanent source of worry for Azhar after being named by the UNSC could be that India can justify any Special Forces action against him on moral as well as national security grounds.

Past experience: The UNSC’s naming of Azhar will be a pyrrhic victory as international terrorists like him have roamed freely all over the world even after being called out by the global community. It has made no difference to the chiefs of ISIS and Al Qaeda whether 15 diplomats in New York name them as terrorists. However, if international pressure also forces Pakistan to implement its anti-money laundering laws, the naming of Azhar as an international terrorist will emasculate his appeal as a bag man. 

The US should ban military trade with Pakistan: India can put pressure on the US to take Pakistan to task for misusing the F-16s given to it for anti-terrorist operations. There are already reports of the US seeking more information on the potential misuse of America-made F-16 fighter jets by Pakistan against India in violation of the end-user agreement (EUM).

What is EUM: The US signs end-user verification agreements with all countries it sells arms to. The EUM allows American inspectors to examine the equipment for misuses and even seize the equipment or deny servicing it and not provide spares. 

Past experience: In 2009, Pakistan conducted a mysterious missile test leading to suspicion that it had surreptitiously altered US-supplied Harpoon anti-ship missiles. The Harpoon was supposed to be used as a defensive weapon but the modification gave it an offensive role, enabling it to hit targets on land. 

The US also suspects that Pakistan has modified its P-3C aircraft meant for oceanic surveillance into a weapon capable of launching land-attack missions. The US had protested against both violations but its inspectors were not allowed to enter Pakistan cantonments.

What can India do: It needs to lobby with the US Congress highlighting previous misuses by Pakistan that date back from the time when it was in the South Asia Treaty Organisation in the mid-50s and seek an embargo on all military sales to Pakistan. 

C Keep up the pressure on anti-terror financing laws: India played a smart hand in October 2018 when the Financial Action Task Force (FATF) met in Paris to review anti-money laundering and terrorist financing laws of member countries. Pakistan was in the nether zone and could have escaped with a mild rap. But India played on Pakistan’s all-weather friend, China’s global aspirations by offering to support it for the post of vice-president of FATFA. China eagerly grabbed the offer because it will automatically head FATFA next year. As a result, it did not move a muscle when FATFA put Pakistan on the Grey List.

What is FATFA?: It began as a construct of the world’s most powerful capitalist countries and gradually enrolled other economies such as Russia, China, India and Pakistan. It has set standards for anti-terrorist and money laundering laws. Failure to meet the standards could lead to blacklisting and denial of funds from the IMF and the World Bank.

Past experience: Pakistan has been censured at least 25 times in FATFA’s 30 years of existence. It was again censured in February this year and has been given a three-month deadline till June.

What can India do: India was at its lobbying best when FATFA met in Paris just after the Pulwama attacks. China again stayed away from throwing its weight behind Pakistan. As a result, Pakistan remained on the Grey List. India needs to sustain the pressure so that Pakistan is denied IMF loans or it implements its anti-terror and money-laundering laws so that it becomes difficult for the Hafiz Saeeds and Azhar Masoods to operate.

D Make Pakistan feel awkward among Muslim nations: One regional multilateral organisation that has excluded India at the behest of Pakistan is the Organisation of Islamic Countries (OIC). Fakhruddin Ali Ahmed (who later became President of India) could not attend the first OIC summit after Pakistan threatened to walk away. In a delicious irony now, the OIC Ministerial held last week saw Sushma Swaraj’s participation as a Guest of Honour while Pakistan sat out in protest. 

What is OIC: It has 57 members, but, of them, 17 are not Muslim majority. Having the field to itself, Pakistan has managed to force the OIC to deliver virulently anti-India statements on its handling of the Kashmir situation. Though the OIC takes no further action, the statements embarrass India, which takes pride in its diversity and vibrancy of religions.

What can India do: Bangladesh and Turkey have already proposed ‘observer’ status at the OIC for India. This is again a  sweet revenge against Pakistan for proposing ‘observer’ status for China at SAARC. India can let the proposal for ‘observor’ status at the OIC hang fire, provided Pakistan promises to behave.

E Get Pakistan upbraided at the SCO for its behaviour: India cancelled a SCO meeting in Hyderabad on January 28 in protests against the Pulwama attack and could boycott another upcoming meeting as Pakistan is one of the participants. Other members are worried that this warring duo may turn the SCO ineffectual as their rivalry has done to SAARC.

What is SCO: An eight-member organisation consisting Russia, China, four Stans of Central Asia besides India and Pakistan. Pakistan has no dispute with any of these countries. On the contrary, it sees them as its passport to economic rejuvenation, 

What can India do: The SCO was originally set up to sort out border disputes among the original six members (India and Pakistan joined later) and then moved on to anti-terrorism cooperation. India must make clear its stand that militants from Pakistan must also be put on its anti-terror data base. That will make Pakistan accountable for their actions. As opposed to the client-patron relationship between Pakistan and the US, the SCO countries enjoy peer-level ties with Pakistan, making it more amenable to their counsel.