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Johnson’s volte-face gives rise to hopes of Brexit deal

IN 2016, when Boris Johnson, now Britain’s Prime Minister, opted to throw his weight behind the campaign for the United Kingdom to leave the European Union in the then upcoming referendum, his father, Stanley, a former bureaucrat at the European Commission, described his decision as a “career-ending” move.

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ASHIS RAY

IN 2016, when Boris Johnson, now Britain’s Prime Minister, opted to throw his weight behind the campaign for the United Kingdom to leave the European Union in the then upcoming referendum, his father, Stanley, a former bureaucrat at the European Commission, described his decision as a “career-ending” move.

As it transpired, the leavers won the vote and Theresa May, who replaced David Cameron as Prime Minister, rescued Johnson from the wilderness by handing him a plum post of Foreign Secretary. The latter, though, disagreeing with his benefactor, resigned from the Cabinet and — bolstered by a Europhobe majority among the rank and file of his Conservative party — returned as head of government. The triumph was founded on a risky commitment that Britain will exit the EU, deal or no deal, by October 31.

Indeed, he immediately embarked on his seemingly preferred option of a no-deal. Married to this was a mission to prepare for a general election, given the Conservatives’ minority status in the House of Commons and uncomfortable dependence on the Northern Irish Democratic Unionist Party (DUP).

What Johnson perhaps didn’t anticipate was MPs, wary of his no-deal inclination, spending the summer planning counter moves. Indeed, these culminated in Parliament debarring by law a no-deal Brexit and imposing a three-month extension to the negotiating period. Stung by this, Johnson began to seriously explore a solution with the EU, as not finding one would mean either an ignominious U-turn or possible imprisonment. In short, another career-ending circumstance.

After a month of meandering, in course of which his formal proposal to president of the European Commission Jean-Claude Juncker was rejected, Johnson was extended a lifeline on Thursday by Leo Varadkar, the half-Indian-origin Irish Prime Minister. The Good Friday Agreement of 1998 guaranteed free movement of people, goods and services between the British territory of Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland; which in turn ushered in peace in Northern Ireland after decades of violence between rival Catholic and Protestant militants. Maintenance of this status quo has therefore been sacrosanct between the two parties. Consequently, conjuring a frictionless border between a Brexiting Northern Ireland and the EU-remaining Republic of Ireland has been the challenge. Johnson’s formulation of no physical customs checks, but Northern Ireland exiting the EU customs union was found by Brussels to be unworkable, as was the condition of a ratification of the arrangement by the Northern Irish assembly every four years.

Varadkar to the rescue

With the crisis deepening, the straight-talking Varadkar has emerged as a statesmanlike figure. At a critical meeting in Wirral, in north-west England, he cajoled Johnson into a volte-face, convincing him there can only be a deal if there’s no customs demarcation on the island of Ireland. This, to not only sustain the sanctity of the Good Friday treaty, but also the integrity of the EU single market.

Thus, British and EU negotiators are racing against time over this weekend to discover a balance which satisfies the EU as well as the House of Commons. In reality, a modified version of the customs configuration concurred between the EU and Theresa May, which would take Northern Ireland out of the EU customs union, but apply the bloc’s rules and tariffs on goods moving from mainland Britain to Northern Ireland, with a rebate system compensating affected businesses.

In short, an acceptable text needs to be ready for the EU Council meeting or the summit of its heads of government. With the pound strengthening against the US dollar and leading investment banks sounding optimistic, the chances of this happening seem to have improved. 

It is premature to judge the mood of British MPs without sight of the final construct and wording of the EU-UK agreement. But pro-EU Liberal Democrats and the Scottish National Party are proactive in persuading the main Opposition Labour party to table a motion for a second referendum. What is likely, though — given that the impatience of the British people is at a fever pitch, because of the three-and-a-half-year delay in implementing Brexit — is that disapproval of a reasonable deal could swing the electorate in Johnson’s favour, notwithstanding his gambolling with the wind.

But victory in the court of the people would not mean forgiveness in the eyes of the law. If it is evidentially established that Johnson as Mayor of London unjustifiably granted financial favours to an American woman, Jennifer Accuri, electoral success will not save him from paying a price.

— The writer is a senior journalist based in London

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