Dangers of the US-Iran standoff

Lt Gen Harwant Singh (Retd)
Former Deputy Chief of Army staff

The Middle East has been in a state of turmoil for decades. Yet another and the more serious of these now appears to be around the corner. The shooting down of American Drone RQ-4 Global Hawk by an Iranian missile has brought the two countries closer to a flashpoint. In fact, an airstrike in response to the downing of the drone was ordered but was cancelled by Trump, minutes before takeoff by American bombers. So, the situation is fluid and unpredictable. It was not clear whether the targeting of the drone was done at the tactical level or on orders from the highest level. 

Iran had embarked on the path to developing nuclear weapons and at some point Israel was planning to bomb the nuclear facilities of that country. However, during the Bush and Obama administrations, Israel was repeatedly talked down from adopting this course. It was obvious that if Iran retaliated, that would have sucked in American military forces into the conflict. However, both Israel and the US did carry out complex cyber attacks on Iranian facilities to buy time and delay Iranian moves to develop a nuclear weapon. 

 Eventually, the US under Barak Obama and five other countries, ie Britain, France, Germany, Russia and China, in 2015 drew a treaty with Iran that it will not enrich uranium to weapon grade. In addition, the deal laid down that Iran can stockpile no more than 300 kg of the so-called low-enriched uranium, a fraction of what it previously hoarded. To remain under this limit, Iran shipped low enriched uranium out of the country. In addition, there are some other restrictions relating to the enrichment of uranium and advance centrifuge. This restriction is valid till 2030. Though, some call this date far too soon. 

Trump, during his first 15 months in office, had Lt Gen HR McMasteras  national security adviser, Rex W Tillerson as Secretary of State and Jim Mattis as Secretary of Defence and they all were of the view that the President should expand the deal rather than reject it. However, soon after Tillerson and McMaster were moved out, Trump declared this Obama-era treaty as the 'worst deal ever and a disaster.' 

Consequently, America withdrew from this treaty, while the other five countries and Iran did not follow this line. However, Iran is believed to have announced that it will not abide by the treaty. Since the withdrawal from this treaty, America has been imposing increasingly harsh trade sanctions, which, in turn, have been crippling the Iranian economy. 

These sanctions affect India, too, because much of its oil and at cheaper rates is obtained from Iran. Large numbers of international flights which fly over the Gulf have since been cancelled. 

Earlier, four oil tankers navigating the Gulf of Oman, near the Fujairan port, were attacked. But the recent attack on two tankers — Kokuka Courageous of Japan and Front Altair of Norway — almost crippled these tankers and the crew abandoned the ships. 

An American video of a small boat filled with sailors by the side of one of the stricken tankers has been taken as proof of Iranian hand in this attack. In addition, the mine used to damage one of the tankers is believed to be of Iranian origin. Though, the German Foreign Minister has said that this video is not enough proof of Iranian culpability in these incidents. Iran’s Foreign Minister Javad Zarif has tweeted that America has accused Iran without a shred of evidence. 

 Yet, some experts are of the view that Iraq is seeking ways to strike America while maintaining just enough ambiguity to avoid a direct military confrontation. 

Harassing tankers in the Gulf punishes the United States by raising the price of oil and gives Iran a collateral benefit of increasing its revenue from the sale of lesser quantity of oil being sold due to the sanctions. 

At the American end, the public is a bit cynical about presidents and intelligence after George W Bush’s invasion of Iraq based on false accusations of weapons of mass destruction and Barak Obama's accusation of Syria gassing its own people. 

Even before these two incidents of attack on oil tankers, Trump had ordered the move of an aircraft carrier group into this area. Subsequently, he moved some more troops. 

It may be argued why  the United States is getting involved in this emerging hostile scene when neither of the ships belongs to the US. But America has been committed since World War II to ensure safe export of petroleum products from the Persian Gulf. Subsequently, during the First Gulf War in 1990, the United States reinforced that commitment with a military build-up in the region. 

The world's third of crude oil supplies and nearly a fifth of natural gas pass through the Gulf of Oman, Strait of Hormuz and Persian Gulf.

While the ever-increasing sanctions are crippling the Iranian economy, they are merely hardening the stance of that country. Iran is threatening that it would stockpile more dangerous — nuclear fuel — and exceed the 300-kg limit and would follow through with its threat to enrich uranium to higher levels. 

Equally, the Revolutionary Guard Corps of Iran, which is allied with hardline politicians and wields an important military and economic clout in Iran, has been at odds with the more pragmatic political leadership. And, it is determined to safeguard its own interests by threatening the oil transport on which the world’s economy depends. The Revolutionary Guard views that this standoff with America will benefit it in the coming elections by striking at President Hassan Rouhani as well. 

At the same time, Iran does understand that a conflict with the United States could be very damaging, but Iran's point is that if it cannot export its oil and safeguard its economy, then no Gulf country will be allowed to do so. 

At the American end, both Secretary of State Mike Pompeo and John R Bolton are pushing for an ever-increasing tightening of pressure on Iran. At the recent meetings held in the Oval Office, the common view was that America needs to respond to the attack on its drone which was flying over international waters and not over Iranian-controlled waters, as claimed by Iran. 

The fact is that Iran has been backing allied militias in Iraq, Syria, Yemen and even the government's opponents in Bahrain. This is the other issue which has been provoking American reaction. All this is taking the two countries closer to a flashpoint. 

Should the present standoff between America and Iran spill over into a conflict, it will have a far-reaching consequence: not only will it lead to further destabilising the Middle East, but it will also have wider ramifications, besides being disastrous for the world economy. 

However, the ever-unpredictable Trump may any time soon change his stance for the better. Though, Trump seems to view that this conflict might imperil his chances for a second run on the presidency. 

In fact, even after pulling out of the nuclear treaty with Iran, he has called upon that country to abide by the treaty. This flip-flop by Trump keeps everyone in suspense. Some perceive it as madness, while some others view it as shrewd moves.