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Sankar Sen
Former Director, National Police Academy
SRi Lanka experienced its most devastating terror strike on April 21 — Easter Sunday. It was a massacre in which more than 350 people were killed and hundreds injured. It was spread all over the island, and perhaps the deadliest incident of international terrorism after 9/11. The targets were churches and posh hotels. Sri Lanka had experience of suicide bombing attacks during its war with the LTTE. But nothing of this devastating intensity had happened before. Most attackers were young suicide bombers.
After any horrendous terrorist attack, there is a cry of intelligence failure. Blame is often unjustly fastened on the intelligence agencies for their failure to provide intelligence inputs that could have neutralised the attack. But this was not so in this nightmarish case. Prior actionable intelligence of the impending suicide bomb attacks was available.
In early April, Indian intelligence operatives had passed on urgent information gleaned from a Tamil speaking prisoner. The names of the suspects, the targets of attacks, location of the leaders, as well as the modes of attack, including suicide bombing, were all given. But sadly and surprisingly, prompt follow-up action was not taken by the Sri Lankan authorities.
After the attacks, the Prime Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe admitted that he was not provided any information regarding an impending attack. President Maithripala Sirisena, who is in charge of armed forces as well as intelligence services, pleaded ignorance of the developments.
It is unfortunate that when the island is facing a crisis of unprecedented dimension, there is lack of coordination between different agencies of the government. Indeed, it has become dysfunctional. The Prime Minister and the President are at loggerheads. Now action has been initiated against the police chief and the defence secretary, but nothing can undo the catastrophe.
The authorities have held that the terrorist blast was a revenge for the attack against the Muslims at Christchurch in New Zealand in March. This may, or may not be correct. Suspicion has fallen on two local extremist organisations — the National Thawheed Jamaat and Jammiyathul Millathu Ibrahim. They are under the scanner. The Islamic State (IS), also known by Arabic acronym Da’esh, has claimed responsibility for the carnage.
The events highlight police lapses. It is a fact that police have not kept close surveillance over jihadist Islamic groups in Sri Lanka. Mainstream Muslims had voiced concern about disemination of extremist views and setting up of small jihadi cells by suspected Islamic radicals. In December last year, following the arrest of Islamist radicals, the police had unearthed a large cache of detonators and explosives in a coconut plantation, but it did not take effective steps to neutralise these radical Islamist groups. The ticking bomb exploded.
The National Security Council of Sri Lanka, presided over by the President, has become dysfunctional. The Prime Minister has not been invited for its meeting for months, and the focus of law enforcement agencies had shifted from the radical Islamic groups.
It is a fact that Islamic State, after its retreat from the Middle East, is desperately trying to re-group and assert. It is trying to spread its tentacles in South Asia. Its effort to establish a foothold in Pakistan-Afghanistan has not so far been very successful. So, it wanted to present a spectacular act of terrorism in Sri Lanka. The nature of bombing attack shows that there was long preparation and training, and very careful coordination before the launching of the attack. There was intense motivation and radicalisation of the perpetrators.
In its post-Caliphate phase, the IS is acting more through local proxies to assert its presence and make its influence felt. The just released video of its supreme leader, Abu Bakr Baghdadi, on April 29, delivering sermon to his followers at a mosque in Mosul, on July 5, 2014, is meant to suggest that he is alive and active. He also praised terrorist attacks by his brothers in Sri Lanka. The strategy of the IS is to organise and strengthen local groups and use them for launching spectacular attacks to catch the imagination of the adherents and heighten the emotional appeal of the IS. This would enable the IS to recruit more followers and strengthen its global mission.
India is very much on the radar of the IS and we should gird up our loins and be prepared for similar terrorist strikes. The Pulwama carnage in Jammu & Kashmir has shown that suicide bombing is going to become increasingly a favoured mode of terrorist attacks.
After the listing of Masood Azhar as an international terrorist, Pakistani handlers will rely on indigenous recruits and not foreign terrorists.
Sri Lanka has now taken extraordinary stake of banning the riquab — a face covering worn by Muslim women. This is a short-sighted measure that may prove to be counter-productive. It may trigger demands for banning other identity marks for Muslim men, like beard, cap, etc. All this will have the cumulative effect of deepening the tension and antagonism between the Sinhalese Buddhists and Muslims of Sri Lanka; and sharpen the communal divide. And this is what precisely the extremists want.
In the midst of this growing tension and violence, former President Rajapaksa, who is allergic to India, is waiting in the wing to step in to the centre stage. He is a popular war-winning President. He feels that his moment has come. Earlier, President Sirisena and Prime Minister Wickremesinghe had joined hands to oust the authoritarian Rajapaksa at a snap election. The relation between the erstwhile friends has soured. There is a growing public feeling that the island needs a strong ruler and Rajapaksa can provide the needed muscular leadership. With elections around the corner, Sri Lanka may opt for a leader who, whatever his faults, can take charge of the situation.