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Litmus test of stalwarts’ popularity

The prestige of about half-a-dozen top leaders of the BJP and the Congress, including Chief Minister Jai Ram Thakur, Shanta Kumar, Prem Kumar Dhumal, Satpal Satti, Virbahdra Singh, Pandit Sukh Ram, Kuldeep Rathore and Mukesh Agnihotri among others is at stake, as the results of four parliamentary constituencies would be crucial vis-à-vis their popularity graph and survival.

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KS Tomar

The prestige of about half-a-dozen top leaders of the BJP and the Congress, including Chief Minister Jai Ram Thakur, Shanta Kumar, Prem Kumar Dhumal, Satpal Satti, Virbahdra Singh, Pandit Sukh Ram, Kuldeep Rathore and Mukesh Agnihotri among others is at stake, as the results of four parliamentary constituencies would be crucial vis-à-vis their popularity graph and survival. The high command of both parties gave weightage to these leaders while allotting tickets from Shimla, Mandi, Hamirpur and Kangra. Hence, the onus lies on them to ensure the victory of their loyalists, including son and grandson of Dhumal and Sukh Ram, respectively.

The BJP was in a comfort zone because it did not face problems in finalising the tickets to sitting MPs including Anurag Thakurfrom Hamirpur and RSS-backed Ram Swaroop Sharma from Mandi. Due to a tough stand taken by Modi and Shah, it was easy to force Shanta Kumar to issue suo moto statement that he wanted to retire from politics and will work for ensuring the victory of party nominees, especially from Kangra.

Shimla candidate Suresh Kashyap could destabilise sitting MP Virender Kashyap due to negative ground reports of RSS and he still is in shock about the factors that led to the denial of ticket to him. Seat- wise dissection of each parliamentary constituency will give micro-level details of the factors that will have direct bearing on the political acumen of these senior leaders, who will have to live up to the expectations of their respective high command and face consequences for failures.

Two-time Chief Minister Dhumal faces the toughest challenge as Congress high command has reportedly got a special contemptuous approach towards Anurag, who has earned the wrath of Sonia Gandhi and Rahul Gandhi due to his scathing attack on them in the parliament. Congress has admitted former state BJP president Suresh Chandel to execute its plan to ensure Anurag’s defeat. 

It is a sheer coincidence that Sonia Gandhi had personally targeted Anurag’s mentor Arun Jaitley in 2014 elections, when she directed Captain Amarinder Singh to contest from Amritsar Lok Sabha seat to defeat the senior BJP leader and she achieved her goal. But scenario is different in Hamirpur, as Anurag is facing five-time Congress MLA Ram Lal Thakur, who is determined to exhibit his exceptional capability and popularity to achieve his mission. Anurag seems to be confident in retaining his seat and his father and former CM PK Dhumal is leaving no stone unturned in putting the Congress high command on the mat. Former CM Virbhadra wanted Sujanpur MLA’s son Abhishek Rana to contest this seat, but the high command overruled his contention. At the same time, Congress legislature party leader Mukesh Agnihotri will have to deliver, as his Assembly segment is also a part of Hamirpur constituency. Former PCC president Sukhviner Singh Sukhu will have to make concerted efforts to retain lead from his Assembly seat. The political equations and scenario is of great interest in Mandi constituency, as Sukh Ram’s dream to carry on his legacy through his grandson Ashray has posed a big challenge to his decades-old established leadership in the district. His popularity will come to naught if Ashray loses, but it will be re-established if Congress candidate wins. Hence, it is a do-or-die situation for the octogenarian leader.

On the other hand, Jai Ram Thakur has got no option, but to ensure the victory of Ram Swaroop Sharma, who had given a catchy slogan in 2014 elections “Garib Sudama ko vote dijeeye” (vote for poor Sudama), which clicked and he won. But now, eyebrows are being raised over his poor performance and lack of connectivity with the electorate in the past five years. The BJP had won nine out of 10 Assembly seats in November 2017 elections. Hence, a defeat may mean disaster for the CM. RSS has put its weight behind Ram Swaroop. Hence, it is worrisome for the ‘Sangh Parivar’, as the BJP candidate is facing several hurdles and banking on Modi and CM’s popularity besides disciplined cadre of the RSS.

An identical scenario prevails in Kangra constituency, because present BJP candidate Kishan Kapoor got a ticket due to the blessings of former CM Shanta Kumar, who is facing a litmus test to sail his loyalist through, especially against heavy odds, including caste factor, which is currently in favour of the Congress nominee Pawan Kazal, who belongs to the OBC category. The BJP nominee hails from ‘gaddi’ community, which is in far less numbers as compared to the OBCs.

In Shimla constituency, the denial of ticket to sitting MP Virender Kashyap has shocked him and he is yet to reconcile with it. New BJP candidate Suresh Kashyap is a former senior Non-Commissioned Officer, whereas his rival from the Congress — Col Dhani Ram Shandil (retd), has served in the Army and has been MP twice from Shimla seat. Despite factionalism in the Congress, he is being backed by all senior leaders of the party. State Congress president Kuldeep Rathore and Virbhadra belong to Shimla district, hence the onus of his victory will fall on them.

Now, the results on May 23 will be a referendum on the popularity of these top state leaders of both parties, which may have its serious ramifications on future politics in Himachal.

(Writer is a senior journalist. Views are personal)

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