Data under a cloud

The Union Government finds itself in the eye of a data storm over a new report of the National Sample Survey Office (NSSO), which states that at least one-third of the companies in the database used for GDP calculation could not be traced or surveyed. The older GDP series had relied on a survey of companies conducted by the Reserve Bank of India for the private corporate sector, while the newer one — started in 2015 — employed the database maintained by the Ministry of Corporate Affairs (MCA) that contains a list of registered companies. The report has observed that in many cases, the selected enterprises either did not compile their annual audit reports for 2015-16 or did not prepare balance sheets any time before. This resulted in a delay in the progress of the survey and an increase in the number of ‘non-response’ cases.

The Union Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation is already in the damage-control mode, claiming that the discrepancy will have no impact on the existing GDP estimates as the corporate filings are ‘appropriately adjusted at the aggregate level’. According to the ministry, the NSSO technical report on services sector enterprises — which will now be examined by an official committee — had been commissioned to understand the data gaps and take remedial steps. However, the presence of thousands of ghost firms in the official database needs to be investigated thoroughly, not swept under the carpet.

The credibility of the government’s economic data has been hit hard for the second time this year. Earlier, an NSSO survey had found that the country’s unemployment rate was at a 45-year high of 6.1 per cent during 2017-18. The government chose not to make the politically explosive report public and instead referred it to the NITI Aayog on the grounds that the data was ‘not verified’. The controversial move had led to the resignation of two non-government members of the National Statistical Commission. Accused of fudging or concealing data for political gains, the powers that be should clear the air and let statistics speak for themselves. After all, institutional integrity, and consequently that of the government, is at stake.