Manifestos mum on resources to fulfil promises

Ujjwal K Chowdhury
Media academic and columnist

DAYS before the first phase of the General Election, the manifestos have taken centre stage. The challenger, the Congress, was the first to announce its manifesto among the top two national parties. Its major promises are: Nyuntam Aay Yojana (NYAY), under which 5 crore families or the poorest 20 per cent of Indians will be guaranteed a cash transfer of Rs 72,000 a year to the eldest woman in the family. The Congress pledges to fill 22 lakh vacant positions of the Central Government by March 2020. It will pass a law to prevent and punish hate crimes such as lynching and vigilante violence. It will hold the Kashmir talks without preconditions; Armed Forces Special Powers Act (AFSPA) will be reviewed; the British-era sedition law will be scrapped; and defamation will be made a civil offence. The Congress further pledges to set up an inter-faith council of all religions for dialogue and cultural exchange. Attempts of vigilante groups to censor on intimidate artists will be dealt with firmly. Linking of Aadhaar will be voluntary, but encouraged, but none will be deprived of government services due to non-linking. The Congress has promised to scrap the ‘opaque’ electoral bond scheme. It will pass regulations to stop the spread of fake news and hate speech. The party pledges to create defence manufacturing capacities in the public sector and in pre-qualified security-cleared private companies. It will scrap the Niti Aayog, and its GST 2.0 will be based on a single, moderate, standard rate of tax, easy to understand and administer. It has promised extension of MNREGA to a guaranteed 150 days of work in rural India, and has called for a law on Right to Health, apart from farm loan waiver across India and free education up to Class XII in government schools. The Congress has also announced to treat air pollution as a national emergency.

While the Congress woos the absolute poor with big, quantifiable handouts, the incumbent BJP is eyeing a huge layer just above them with some big state spend and/or loans. The BJP talks big in terms of infrastructure with Rs 100 lakh crore planned in under three years, though the current spend is close to Rs 6 lakh crore. The BJP promises farm investments worth Rs 25 lakh crore over the next five years on farm/rural productivity. Farm loans of up to Rs 1 lakh will be interest-free. The saffron party aims for a sustainable 8 per cent GDP growth ahead to make India a $5-trillion economy by 2025, a planned doubling of national highways over the next five years and a huge farm sector investment. On the Ram Mandir, the manifesto says: “We will explore all possibilities within the framework of the Constitution and all necessary efforts to facilitate the expeditious construction of the Ram Temple in Ayodhya.” On the Sabarimala shrine, the ‘Sankalp Patra’ says that the party would “endeavour to secure constitutional protection on issues related to faith and belief”. The manifesto has reiterated the BJP’s commitment to drafting a Uniform Civil Code. On Kashmir, the manifesto states, “We reiterate our position for the abrogation of Article 370”, and says that “We are committed to annulling Article 35A of the Constitution.” 

Nationalism is the strongest flavour of the ‘Sankalp Patra’ that projects the incumbent Prime Minister as the strongest and most able leader for India in the 21st century. While Rajnath Singh, chairman of the manifesto committee, listed 75 milestones that India has to achieve by 2022 when the country celebrates the 75th anniversary of Independence, Narendra Modi said 2019-24 would be a time to “lay the foundation” for 2047, the 100th year of Independence.

Looking back on the BJP’s 2014 manifesto, there is ‘more of the same’ flavour in Modi’s to-do list. There are not enough quantifiable goals to hold the government accountable. The ‘Sankalp Patra’ presupposes that aspiration drives growth with some mild doses of empowerment in the bottom rungs of the growth ladder. This is distinct from the direct enrichment of the poorest of the poor promised by the Congress’ NYAY (universal basic income) plan. In BJP-speak, big numbers shout ‘growth’, while the fine print for farmers and the poor whispers ‘tokenism’. Unlike the Congress, the BJP believes in asset spend rather than consumption spend as its lynchpin.

It is not clear where Rs 100 lakh crore of assets and Rs 25 lakh crore of farm investments will come from, as promised by the BJP, nor is it specified from where Rs 3.6 lakh crore for NYAY will come, as promised by the Congress (apart from raising taxes). 

The BJP’s virtual 50-50 model of spend-driven ‘walk-out-of-poverty’ sharply contrasts with Congress president Rahul Gandhi’s Rs 6,000-per-month ‘helicopter drop’ plan to make the poorest spend for a ‘remonetisation’-driven growth. As for unemployment, beyond the MUDRA loans that are already on the table, the bet has shifted to the farm sector. It seems that the Congress’ promises gave a wake-up call to the BJP to paint a rural mural.

The BJP and the Congress have clearly taken contrasting approaches to growth and poverty alleviation. Beyond the common-sounding words, there is a distinct divergence of strategy that makes this year’s elections  exciting to watch.

The BJP’s electoral confidence stems probably from its assertive right-wing position on everything, from national security and patriotic appeals to hardball citizenship rules in Assam, with some targeted talk to woo the wannabe segment that rests above those who do not get two square meals a day. And hence it squarely opposed a review of AFSPA, scrapping of sedition law, undermining State supervision of civilian activities et al, all so assiduously raised by the Congress. 

India is up for a choice between the bottoms-up development and welfare economics of the Congress, and top-down growth economics approach of the BJP, where the State will create infrastructure for private initiatives to make hay and grow. Both sides are strategically silent on the resources needed to implement their vision.