Rural distress to affect voting

Vibha Sharma in New Delhi

Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s narrative around national pride and security, air, and, now, space strikes appears to have subsumed real issues before the country. Relying on Rafale to take on Prime Minister Narendra Modi, Congress’ Rahul Gandhi, too, seemed to have missed the point until ‘Nyay’, the Nyuntam Aay Yojana.

Detractors claim the traction ‘Nyay’ received forced the PM to “springboard A-SAT” to help his party push forward the post-Pulwama narrative and “help brush under the carpet real issues like jobs,  rural, agrarian distress.” But events like Balakot and space strikes have a short shelf life.

In rural India, while national pride is important but so are basic issues like ‘dal-roti’. An average voter in rural India understands the nuances of politics better than the urban voter. Any political journalist who has covered elections in Bihar and Uttar Pradesh can tell this. 

Of the 543 seats in the Lok Sabha, at least 300 have direct rural or agrarian connection.  Only around 18 to 20 per cent of the electorate and some 80-odd seats can be called truly urban. There is increasing evidence that rural voters are shifting away from the BJP. It is this constituency that schemes like PM-KISAN (Pradhan Mantri Kisan Samman Nidhi) is expected to impact.

Disgruntled farmers are said to be the main reason for the BJP’s loss in Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh and Rajasthan. The PM has set an ambitious target to double their incomes by 2022, with 2015-16 as base year. But to get there, farmers will first have to repose faith in him at a time when their revenues are going down because of consistent fall in crop prices and stagnation in average rural wages. 

Non-farm rural incomes have also slumped. Apart from rising input costs, debts, falling profitability and weather risks, stray cattle menace is another problem, especially in northern states, which need resolution. Schemes like the PM-AASHA to ensure remunerative crop prices for farmers, e-NAM, soil health cards and crop insurance have failed to address issues.

For now, parties are engaged in a slugfest over who is better suited to take care of the poor and farmers. The BJP claims the “means to uplift and job creation” provided through schemes like PM-Kisan and PM-Mudra are much better than to completely write-off farmers loans and schemes like ‘Nyay.”

Finance Minister Arun Jaitley says the Congress promised a farm loan waiver in Punjab, Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Rajasthan and Karnataka but failed to fulfil its promise. “Karnataka has so far spent only Rs 2,600 crore, Madhya Pradesh Rs 3,000 crore and Punjab Rs 5,500 crore. Farmers are still waiting. 

“If they are so concerned about the poor, why is it that these states are going slow in certifying the list of small and marginal farmers who are entitled to receiving the PM KISAN? “Why are states like West Bengal, Odisha and Delhi not implementing Ayushman Bharat?” questions Jaitley.

Congress leaders say, the proposed ‘Nyay’ will cover rural population. The party is also working on a comprehensive plan and vision paper to ease farm distress.

The BJP is also challenging the Congress’  ‘Nyay’. “Rs 72,000 for 5 crore families works out to be Rs 3.6 lakh crore, which is less than two-thirds of what we are already giving,” says Jaitley.

Meanwhile, a group of “distressed farmers” from Tamil Nadu have announced the plan to take on the Prime Minister in his constituency, Varanasi, by filing 111 nominations there. 

Farmer unions across the country have released an 18-point agenda for political parties to include in their manifestos, along with implementation timelines. In these elections, farmers will vote as one, irrespective of caste, they claim, demanding a special Parliament session for a month to discuss agrarian crisis, fair and remunerative price and guarantee 100 per cent procurement for crops, among others 

Rejecting the BJP’s C2+50 per cent MSP formula, they also want unconditional waiver of all types of loans within six months of coming into power, income support of Rs 10,000 per acre per year per farmer and pension. They are also seeking rehabilitation of the families of farmers who have committed suicide, besides government job for at least one family member.