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The re-rise of Modi?

There is no doubt that the Pulwama attack, Balakot aerial strike, Pakistani counter-action and return of Wg Cdr Abhinandan Varthaman interrupted the rhythm of the Congress and other opposition parties’ election campaigns.

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Vivek Katju
Ex-secretary, Ministry of External Affairs

There is no doubt that the Pulwama attack, Balakot aerial strike, Pakistani counter-action and return of Wg Cdr Abhinandan Varthaman interrupted the rhythm of the Congress and other opposition parties’ election campaigns. It stalled the momentum of their attempt, on the back of the Congress’ successes in the Rajasthan, MP and Chhattisgarh Assembly elections, to corner PM Modi on issues relating to social harmony, Rafale and the quality of development programmes during his term. Conversely, the Balakot strike gave Modi the much-needed opportunity to wrap himself in patriotic colours and Abhinandan’s quick return provided an occasion to claim diplomatic success.

At this stage, with less than four weeks to the first polling date, it is certain that the evoked nationalism sentiment has made an impact. It is difficult though to assess its depth or the extent of its influence on the vote share or if it will endure through all seven phases of polling. While the immediate euphoria that the Balakot action generated is not sustainable,  there is obvious satisfaction in large sections of the population at India finally striking at a major terrorist camp in Pakistani territory, and that too by using air power. Modi will reap political benefit, but has it given him a firm theme to dominate the election discourse, if not nationwide in the Hindi-speaking states at least? Ultimately, these states hold the key to his political future.

All past parliamentary elections since 1971 have demonstrated that only the combination of a dominant theme and a dominant national leader has led to decisive electoral success. The absence of either has resulted in no party succeeding in getting a majority on its own. The elections of 1971, 1980, 1984 and 2014 fall in this category.

 By 1971, Indira Gandhi was dominating the political scene, but to politically legitimise her position she brought the election forward. She put forward the proposition that she wanted poverty to be banished while the traditional Congress leadership wanted to banish her. By the end of 1979, the Janata Party had collapsed under its contradictions, and despite the Emergency, she won on the over-arching theme of stability. Certainly, despite being out of office she had remained India’s leading leader by far. The 1984 election was all about her legacy and Rajiv Gandhi the sole leader who could claim its inheritance.

Modi’s 2014 success was based on the projection of the theme of comprehensive progress — using the evocative word ‘vikas’ — within a secure environment. By that time, he had emerged as the tallest leader in the country because of both substance and projection. There was no one in his league in that election. No wonder, in the Hindi-speaking states he won a spectacular 191 of a total of 226 Lok Sabha seats. His appeal cut across caste lines. Thus in UP, he secured 71 out of 80 seats, with a voting percentage of 42, double of the BJP’s traditional vote share. 

Prior to Pulwama and Balakot, a repeat of the 2014 performance seemed difficult, for the ‘vikas’ theme was not drawing sufficient traction and the national security theme did not have an immediacy. But now, the latter theme’s goodwill seems to be contributing to some sections looking more positively to Modi’s development programmes, too. The question is if national security has become an overriding dominant theme? Certainly, the Congress is seeking to divert national focus back to a melange of sub-themes with the intention to paint Modi as a friend of rich industrialists and unmindful of the welfare of farmers.

The Balakot strike and the Pakistani counter-attack have massive security doctrinal implications that Pakistan and the international community will have to factor in. It will enhance global pressure on Pakistan to wind up its terrorist enterprise, for India has finally signalled that provocation and escalation begin with the preparations for a terrorist attack from Pakistani soil and not an Indian conventional defence forces response. Modi deserves great credit for authorising the Balakot action for these reasons. However, the electorate is unlikely to look at these aspects.

If Pakistan had not taken its counter-action, the national security theme would have resonated all through the polls and become dominant. Now, a victory on points has been secured and not through a knockout blow. On the diplomatic front, too, China’s action in maintaining its technical hold on Masood Azhar’s listing as a UN-designated terrorist has been an embarrassment to Modi, which complicates claims of success. This is despite his good record on the foreign policy front. 

Consequently, there is some manoeuvring space for the Congress and other opposition parties. What is hobbling them is the absence of a clear alternative to Modi as leader and the lack of an overall alliance. Thus even if the BSP and the Samajwadi Party are able to effectively transfer their votes to each other’s candidates in UP, the Congress as a third pole complicates the situation for them. This can impact the elections to Modi’s advantage. The difficulty is that no one can make accurate predictions in the absence of a ground swell in one direction or another, which, as of now, is not discernible in UP.

In such a situation, it is difficult to foresee if Modi will be able to maintain the record 191 seats in the Hindi-speaking states. However, there are positive popular vibes because of the demonstrable impact of some developmental programmes. They are beginning to make some improvement in the lives of the people and that is leading to the current situation of advantage Modi in Hindi-speaking areas. Will this prove enough to be the foundation of his electoral success?

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