Cong banking on Priyanka to reverse fortunes

Rasheed Kidwai
Senior journalist & author

Alot has been written and said about Priyanka Gandhi’s forays into politics, ‘Mission Uttar Pradesh’ and the upcoming Lok Sabha polls. The crucial point is whether Priyanka can trigger an ‘aa ab laut chalen’ moment among the Indian middle class, women, the youth and the Congress’ erstwhile vote bank consisting of Brahmins, Dalits and Muslims. 

Cynics, critics and Congress baiters are unanimous that Priyanka’s formal induction is a case of ‘too little, too late. Pitted against a belligerent BJP under Narendra Modi and Yogi Adityanath’s leadership and a caste-based arithmetic alliance comprising the Samajwadi Party, Bahujan Samaj Party and Rashtriya Lok Dal, Priyanka’s task of reviving the grand old party in eastern Uttar Pradesh looks formidable and insurmountable. Given the state of the Congress’ organisational set-up, the dearth of winnable Lok Sabha candidates, lack of resources and roots in society are some other significant challenges. 

But there is a bright and promising side of the Congress story which is missing from the current narrative. Voters in India tend to be highly volatile; therefore, there is every possibility that they will throw up an unexpected verdict. This is the basic premise on which the Congress is positioning itself, counting heavily on Priyanka’s charisma, spontaneity and leadership style.

In any electoral contest, the anti-incumbency factor weighs heavily. In Uttar Pradesh, the bulk of the state MLAs and MPs belong to the BJP. Theoretically, there is a strong chance of this double anti-incumbency working against a majority of BJP MLAs and MPs even if Modi and Adityanath continue to have a reasonable popularity quotient. If voters are indeed disillusioned and looking for an alternative, Priyanka has the potential to showcase herself as a harbinger of hope and score over Mayawati and Akhilesh Yadav.

Priyanka’s roadshow showed glimpses of her prowess as TV news channels went berserk. Almost all of them had four units or more, prime-time anchors and correspondents stationed strategically in Lucknow, bringing the Priyanka show live, every minute and second. Pictures of her kissing a kid, sitting atop a bus, holding on to a kulhar (earthen tea cup) were lapped up.

It is common knowledge that TV news coverage is inseparably linked to TRPs. One may recall 2012 and 2013 when Arvind Kejriwal’s press conferences forced news channels to even sacrifice commercial breaks, fearing loss of TRPs. Ditto was the case with Modi throughout 2013 and the early part of 2014, when he was the prime ministerial candidate. The subsequent electoral success of Kejriwal and Modi showed that the TRP madness does reflect a trend. This is where Priyanka scores over her brother and Congress chief Rahul Gandhi.

The Congress is underplaying this aspect of the Gandhi sibling ratings. It remains to be seen whether the party will continue to adopt an ostrich-like approach or use Priyanka optimally. On social media, too, Priyanka’s debut has been both stylish and grand. Without a tweet, her followers have swelled up to over 1.6 lakh.

Uncertainty looms large over the Hindi heartland and the outcome of the Lok Sabha battle. The Congress calculations are interesting to explore. It has a strong urge to eject PM Modi from the high office just like any other non-NDA political outfit. But that is all. The grand old party is almost obsessed with its ‘historic’ role in getting the country freedom and playing a pivotal role in nation-building. It also fancies its ideology and political thinking to be nearly identical with the idea of India. Instinctively, the party does not relish prospects of backing a ragtag coalition as a replacement for the Modi regime. Even if the coming together of regional parties becomes inevitable, the Congress wants to hold leverage and improve upon the United Front (1996-98) experiment that was ugly and a certain put-off for the Indian middle class. In order to showcase its ‘good governance’ model, the Congress is aware that more parliamentary seats in its kitty will help it earn the offices of the Prime Minister, Finance, Defence or Home Minister in the next government. Such is the prospect of a post-poll mahagathbandan that the Congress cannot go public with its line of thinking. In Priyanka, the party is confident of achieving its short-term and long-term goals. 

One issue that should be bothering Priyanka and the Congress is Robert Vadra and his alleged involvement in corruption cases. Priyanka may have stood by him and dubbed the allegations as politically motivated, but these have the potential of upsetting the Indian middle class. The latter tends to have a rather unforgiving and punishing attitude, often failing to make a distinction between a mulzim (accused) and a mujrim (convict). Can she overcome that hurdle too?